Real estate: It's time to buy again
Posted by Shawn Tully, senior editor-at-large
March 28, 2011 5:00 am
Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.
A home under construction in Austin. The number of new homes in the pipeline nationwide is quite low.
From his wide-rimmed cowboy hat to his roper boots, Mike Castleman fits moviedom's image of the lanky Texas rancher. On a recent March evening, Castleman is feeding cattle biscuits to his two pet longhorn steers, Big Buddy and Little Buddy, on his 460-acre Bar Ten Creek Ranch in Dripping Springs, a hamlet outside Austin in the Texas Hill Country. The spread is a medley of meandering streams, craggy cliffs, and centuries-old oaks. But even in this pastoral setting, his mind keeps returning to a subject he knows as well as any expert around: the housing market. "I'm a dirt-road economist who sees what's happening on the ground, and in 35 years I've never seen a shortage of new construction like the one I'm seeing today," declares Castleman, 70, now offering a biscuit to his miniature donkey Thumper. "The talking heads who are down on real estate will hate to hear this, but America needs to build a lot more houses. And in most markets the price of new homes is fixin' to rise, not fall."
Castleman is in a unique position to know. As the founder and CEO of a company called Metrostudy, he's spent more than three decades tracking real-time data on the country's inventory of new homes. Each quarter he dispatches 500 inspectors to literally drive through 45,000 subdivisions from Baltimore to Sacramento. The inspectors examine 5 million finished lots, one at a time, and record whether they contain a house that's under construction, one that's finished and for sale, or a home that's sold. Metrostudy covers 19 states, or around 65% of the U.S. housing market, including all the ones hardest hit by the crash: Florida, California, Arizona, and Nevada. The company's client list includes virtually every major homebuilder and bank -- from Pulte (PHM) and KB Home (KBH) to Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
The key figures that Metrostudy collects, and that those clients prize, are the number of homes that are vacant and for sale in each city, and the number of months it takes to sell all of them. Together those figures measure inventory -- the key metric in determining whether a market has a surplus or a shortage of new housing.
Today Castleman is witnessing an extraordinary reversal of the new-home glut that helped sink prices just a few years ago. In the 41 cities Metrostudy covers, a total of 78,000 houses are now either vacant and for sale, or under construction. That's less than one-fourth of the 343,000 units in those two categories at the peak of the frenzy in mid-2006, and well below the level of a decade ago. "If we had anything like normal levels of buying, those houses would sell in 2½ months," says Castleman. "We'd see an incredible shortage. And that's where we're heading."
If all the noise you're hearing about housing has you totally confused, join the crowd. One day you'll read that owning a home has never been more affordable. The next day you'll see news that housing starts have plunged to nearly their lowest level in half a century, as headlines announced in March. After four years of falling prices and surging foreclosures, it's hard to know what to think. Even Robert Shiller and Karl Case can't agree. The two economists, who together created the widely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price indices, are right now offering sharply contrasting views of housing's future. Shiller recently warned that the chances were high for a further double-digit drop in U.S. home prices. But in an interview with Fortune, Case took a far brighter view: "The lack of new home building is a huge help that a lot of people are ignoring," says Case. "People think I'm crazy to be optimistic, but housing is looking like the little engine that could."
To see where real estate is truly headed, it's critical to keep your eye firmly on the fundamentals that, over time, always determine the course of prices and construction. During the last decade's historic run-up in prices, Fortune repeatedly warned that things were moving too fast. In a cover story titled "Is the Housing Boom Over?," this writer's analysis found that the basic forces that govern the market -- the cost of owning vs. renting and the level of new construction -- were in bubble territory. Eventually reality set in, and prices plummeted. Our current view focuses on those same fundamentals -- only now they're pointing in the opposite direction.
So let's state it simply and forcibly: Housing is back.
Two basic factors are laying the foundation for dramatic recovery in residential real estate. The first is the historic drop in new construction that so amazes Castleman. The second is a steep decline in prices, on the order of 30% nationwide since 2006, and as much as 55% in the hardest-hit markets. The story of this downturn has been an astonishing flight from the traditional American approach of buying new houses to an embrace of renting. But the new affordability will gradually lure Americans back to buying homes. And the return of the homeowner will start raising prices in many markets this year.
Drumming up sales
Of course, home prices are low and home construction is weak for a reason: incredibly low demand. For our scenario to play out, America will need a decent economy, with job creation and consumer confidence continuing to claw their way back to normal.
One big fear is that today's tight credit standards will chill the market. But we're really returning to the standards that prevailed before the craze, and those requirements didn't stop prices and homebuilding from rising in a good economy. "The credit standards are now at about historical levels, excluding the bubble period," says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. "We saw prices rising with fundamentals in those periods, and it will happen again."
To see why, let's examine the remarkable shift in home affordability. A new study by Deutsche Bank measures affordability in two ways: first, the share of income Americans are paying to own a home. And second, the cost of owning vs. renting. On the first metric, the analysis finds that homeowners now pay just 9.8% of their income in after-tax mortgage, tax, and insurance payments. That's down from 17.2% at the bubble's peak in 2007, and by far the lowest number in the Deutsche Bank database, going back to 1999. The second measure, the cost of owning compared with renting, should also inspire potential buyers. In 28 out of 54 major markets, it's now cheaper to pay a mortgage and other major costs than to rent the same house. What's most compelling is that in all of the distressed markets, owning now wins by a wide margin -- a stunning reversal from four years ago. It now costs 34% less than renting in Atlanta. In Miami the average rent is now $1,031 a month, vs. the $856 it costs to carry a ranch house or stucco cottage as an owner. (For more, see The top 10 cities for home buyers)
Not all markets will bounce back equally, of course. Housing resembles the weather: The exact conditions are different in every city. But in general the big U.S. markets fall into two different climate zones right now. We'll call them the "nondistressed markets" and the "foreclosure markets." A more detailed look shows why the forecast for both is favorable.
Nondistressed markets: Ready for launch
No cities went untouched by the collapse in prices over the past few years. But markets such as Northern Virginia, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, San Diego, the San Francisco suburbs, and virtually all of Texas held up reasonably well. In those areas prices spiked far less than in bubble cities -- the foreclosure markets we'll get to shortly -- chiefly because they didn't get nearly as many speculators who thought they could flip the homes or rent them to snowbirds.
The nondistressed markets will be able to get prices rising and construction growing far faster than the harder-hit areas for a simple reason: Although some of these markets are still suffering from foreclosures, they don't need to work through the big overhang haunting a Las Vegas or a Phoenix. The number of new homes for sale or in the pipeline is extraordinarily low in nondistressed markets. San Diego is typical. It has just 921 freestanding homes for sale or under construction, compared with 4,425 in late 2005. The challenge for these cities is to generate enough demand to reduce inventories of existing, or resale, homes. In the entire country the resale supply stands at 3.5 million houses and condos. That's a fairly high number, since it would take more than eight months to sell those properties; seven months or below is the threshold for a strong market.
But in the nondistressed cities, the existing home inventory is lower, closer to seven months on average. So a modest increase in demand will translate into strong gains in both prices and new construction. That should happen quickly, because most of those markets -- including Silicon Valley, Northern Virginia, and Texas -- are now showing good job growth.
Zandi of Moody's Analytics expects that prices will rise three to four points faster than inflation for the next few years in virtually all of the nondistressed markets. His view is that prices will increase in line with rents, which are now growing briskly because apartments are in short supply. Those higher rents will encourage buyers to cross the street from an apartment to a home of their own.
In Northern Virginia, Chris Bratz, an engineer, and his wife, Amy DiElsi, a publicist, are planning to leave their rental apartment and become homeowners for the first time. The main reason? Buying has simply become a far better deal than renting. "The market got completely inflated, then it crashed, so prices are coming back to where they should be," says Chris. As the couple have watched prices fall, they have also watched the rent on their apartment spiral upward, reaching $2,700 a month. They calculate that they should be able to purchase a townhouse for between $400,000 and $500,000 and pay less per month for a mortgage.
The nondistressed markets will also lead the way in construction. Zandi predicts that for the nation as a whole, single-family housing "starts" -- measured when a builder pours a foundation for a new home -- will rise from 470,000 in 2010 to as much as 700,000 this year. A large portion of that activity will happen in nondistressed markets where a tightening supply of resale houses will start making new homes look like a good deal. "Our main competition is from resales," says Jeff Mezger, CEO of KB Home. "The prices of those homes have stayed so low, because of low demand, that it's hampered the ability of builders to sell new houses."
But many would-be buyers simply prefer a brand-new house. Eventually they'll move from renters to buyers, and the trend will accelerate now that prices are no longer dropping. In Minneapolis, Yuan Qu and her husband, Xiang Chen, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, just moved from a two-bedroom rental to a new light-blue four-bedroom ranch with a chocolate-colored roof on a spacious corner lot. They paid $400,000, a bargain price compared with a few years ago. The couple, both in their early thirties, moved to Minnesota from China six years ago. "We wanted to buy a house, and we've been waiting and waiting and waiting," says Qu. "The prices went down for so long, we finally thought they couldn't keep falling." For Qu the only choice was new construction. "We're not very handy people," she admits.
Foreclosure markets: The outlook is brightening
A home off the market in Mesa, Ariz.
The true disaster areas for housing since the bubble burst have been Sunbelt cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Miami -- places that boasted great job and population growth in the mid-2000s, only to suffer a housing crash that swamped them with empty homes and condos and crushed their economies. But people always want to live in those sunny locales, and their job markets are starting to recover, albeit slowly. In foreclosure markets the inventory problem is far greater because it includes not just traditional resale homes but millions of distressed properties. Fortunately those houses are now such a screaming deal that investors, including lots of mom-and-pop buyers, are purchasing them at a rapid pace. To be sure, some foreclosure markets won't rebound for years because they're both vastly overbuilt and far from big job centers; a prime example is California's Inland Empire, a real estate disaster zone 80 miles east of Los Angeles.
But the outlook is brightening for Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, and parts of Northern California. A big positive is the tiny supply of new homes entering the market. Phoenix, for example, has a total of just 8,100 new homes that are either for sale or under construction, down from 53,000 in mid-2006. The big test in these cities is absorbing the steady stream of distressed properties. The foreclosures put downward pressure on the market far out of proportion to their numbers because of markdown pricing. "We had levels of inventory even higher than this in 1990 and 1991," says MIT economist William Wheaton. "But they were traditional listings, not foreclosures, so they didn't create the big discounts you get with foreclosures."
Wheaton reckons that we'll see a flow of around 1 million foreclosures a year, at a fairly even pace, from now through 2013. That figure is frequently cited as evidence that the market is doomed for years in most foreclosure markets. Not so. The reason is that the vast bulk of those units, probably over 600,000, according to Gleb Nechayev, an economist with real estate firm CB Richard Ellis (CBG), are being converted to rentals either by investors or their current owners. Those properties are finding plenty of renters, since the rental market is still extremely strong across the country. Remember, the millions who lost their homes to foreclosure still need somewhere to live.
A typical investor is Alex Barbalat, a Russian immigrant who's purchased seven homes east of San Francisco in the towns of Bay Point, Antioch, and Pittsburg. His average purchase price is around $100,000 for homes that once sold for between $300,000 and $500,000. But he has no trouble finding renters, since his tenants can commute to jobs in San Francisco on the BART transit system. Barbalat is pocketing rental yields on the prices he paid of around 12%, and he's in no hurry to sell. "I'm holding them until prices drastically rise," he says.
Investment funds are also entering the game. Dotan Y. Melech looks for bargains in Las Vegas for UnitedAMS, a firm he co-founded that manages apartments and other real estate investments. The firm has raised more than $20 million from outside investors to purchase distressed properties. So far, Melech has bought around 300 houses and plans to purchase another 200 this year. He has no trouble renting the houses he buys, since, he estimates, occupancy rates in Las Vegas are touching 95%. The "cap rate," or return on investment after all expenses, is between 8% and 10% -- twice the rate on 10-year Treasuries. Melech rents to people who lost their homes but are reliable renters. "A lot of people can't be buyers because their credit got hurt," he says.
Even with investors jumping in, buying activity in foreclosure markets hasn't yet increased enough to bring inventories down. It will soon. Zandi thinks prices will fall a couple of percentage points lower in the distressed markets in the short run. "But that will be overshooting," he says. "It's like an elastic band. If prices do drop this year, they will need to bounce back because they'll be far too low compared with rents and replacement cost." Renters will come off the sidelines to purchase homes in the years ahead, precisely the opposite trend of the past few years.
Consider the example of Michael Dynda, a retired Air Force avionics technician who now works for a government contractor in Las Vegas. Dynda, 49, is a first-time buyer who put off purchasing for years, in part because prices were falling so rapidly in Las Vegas, with no bottom in sight. But last year the combination of bargain prices and low mortgage rates became too good to resist. He ended up purchasing a 2,300-square-foot stucco home for $240,000, or about half what it would have fetched in 2007. Dynda got a 4.38% home loan, and pays the same amount on his mortgage as on the rent on the house he left to become a homeowner. "The timing was about as good as it could get," says Dynda.
Mike Castleman's company tracks the inventory of new homes in 19 states across the country. He sees supply getting tight. "Home prices are fixin' to rise," he says.
Back on the ranch, Mike Castleman is lounging in his creek-front mansion, built from "a hundred tons of fine central Texas limestone." As he shows off his collection of custom-made guitars, including one crafted to resemble the skin of a rattlesnake, the homespun housing guru once again returns to his favorite topic.
Castleman claims that this recovery will look like all the others: It will bring a severe shortage of housing. He invokes the livestock business to explain. "It takes three years between the time a bull mates with a cow and when you get a calf ready for market," he says. "That's how it is in housing too. We'll get a big surge in demand and the drywall companies will take a long time to ramp up, and it will take years to get new lots approved. Buyers will show up looking for a house in a subdivision, and all the houses will be sold. The builders will tell them it will take six months to deliver a house." But those folks, says Castleman, will be set on buying a place. "And they'll want it so bad they'll bid the prices up!" In other words: Beat the crowd.
It's a Great Time to Buy a House
Mike Castleman, the Texan with the best realtime view of housing in the U.S., tells editor-atlarge Shawn Tully that the naysayers are about to get a big surprise: rising prices for new homes.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
New Bern New Home Sales
2011 new home sales compared to the same time frame in 2010, 2009, 2008
2011=48 6 over $200,000
2010=44 9 over $200,000
2009=53 22 over $200,000
2008=77 38 over $200,000
2007=137 73 over $200,000
2011=48 6 over $200,000
2010=44 9 over $200,000
2009=53 22 over $200,000
2008=77 38 over $200,000
2007=137 73 over $200,000
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Homeowner Tax Information
Click the link below to view info on the tax benefits of Homeownership.
http://www.trulia.com/blog/taranelson/2011/03/5_tax_tips_tricks_and_traps_for_homeowners?ecampaign=anews&eurl=www.trulia.com%2Fblog%2Ftaranelson%2F2011%2F03%2F5_tax_tips_tricks_and_traps_for_homeowners
http://www.trulia.com/blog/taranelson/2011/03/5_tax_tips_tricks_and_traps_for_homeowners?ecampaign=anews&eurl=www.trulia.com%2Fblog%2Ftaranelson%2F2011%2F03%2F5_tax_tips_tricks_and_traps_for_homeowners
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
New Bern sales-2011
New Home sales are clicking along so far in 2011. To date there are 77 new homes closed or pending. Of these only 6 are over $200,000.
This is a little better than the same time frame for 2010 when there were 74 new homes sold or pended.
Existing, not new construction, homes sold or pending for 2011=121
Existing, not new construction, homes sold or pending for 2010, same period,=119
This is a little better than the same time frame for 2010 when there were 74 new homes sold or pended.
Existing, not new construction, homes sold or pending for 2011=121
Existing, not new construction, homes sold or pending for 2010, same period,=119
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
The life of a Realtor
How to avoid real estate failure
Letters From the Home Front
By Kris Berg
Inman News™
February 16, 2011
I was first introduced to the term "cyclic failure" in college. The idea is pretty simple, even intuitive: Repeated tension and compression cause stress, and this type of stress, applied over a long enough period of time, can cause fatigue.
Enough fatigue and the result is failure, be it a slab of concrete, a bungee cord -- or a real estate agent.
Most of us have spent the better part of the past five years feeling like underpaid test subjects in an engineering science lab. In fact, in the best of markets our work is defined by compression and tension. Find a client, serve the client, then go out and find another. Lather, rinse and repeat.
One minute, we are on top of the world, flush with listings or buyer clients, reveling in the ecstasy that is positive cash flow. The next, we are wondering how we will eat in 45 days. If you have been licensed for more than two closing cycles, you know this feeling too well. If you have lived through a couple hundred or more transactions, you know it can wear you thin.
Ten years ago, it was easier to bounce back. We were tested in a fairly controlled environment. We had our highs and lows, our successes and failures, but the laws of real estate assured us that hard work would pay off, commitment would triumph, and our down time and down moments would inevitably be followed by another opportunity.
The demand side used to be a given. People would move, after all, once every five years or so. Not so today. Oh, they would if they could, but they can't. Which isn't to say that this leaves the real estate agent curled up on the couch watching "Judge Judy."
Rather, we are just as busy as we were five years ago, the difference being we used to get paid for our efforts.
My husband and I have had four listing opportunities in as many weeks. Each one involved detailed market analyses, fancy presentations -- time and money. And each one involved us playing the role of evening anchor on a night when the news sucked:
•"No, your home is not worth more than it was in 2006. Yes, I know you added those ceiling fans, but still ..."
•"No, your home isn't worth what you paid in 2005. Well, sure, you could just wait until Thursday to list. Yes, more people generally start looking in the spring, but still…"
Buyers present their own challenges, unaware of the realities of today's lending environment or unwilling to accept that the rules apply to them:
•"Yes, I know you make a lot of money, but you started your new job yesterday and ..."
•"Yes, I know you can qualify for a loan, but you have a house to sell first, so short sales and bank-owned properties are not available to you and, by the way, your current home is not worth what it was in 2005 even though you painted the walls a pleasing shade of lilac and added those ceiling fans ..."
And then, if you are a listing agent, there is the standing inventory. Communication is easy when there is something to say. Finding new ways to tell a client that market times are longer, buyers are fewer, prices are flat at best, and patience is a virtue can tax the old thesaurus.
"I don't make the news; I just report it, and you need to reduce price" tends to lose its charm toward the end of a six-month listing.
Fatigue happens. How to overcome it and avoid all-out failure is the question for all the marbles. It's our marbles at stake, and I don't profess to have the answers, but I do know that stagnation is not one of them.
It's hard sometimes to clear the cobwebs, find humor where there seemingly is little, and to feel productive while you're knee-deep in a moss-covered market. It's harder yet to find professional satisfaction when your days are spent in an echo chamber, delivering the same unwelcome rhetoric.
I've been feeling a little fatigued lately and when this happens I give myself a little time off, followed by a swift kick in the britches. In a business where the meter is always running and all days are the same, I declare it a Monday and start by just doing something -- anything.
You can't win if your head's not in the game. Catch up on your industry reading, tinker with your website, retool your listing presentation, or rewrite your business plan. Preview homes, research and study market trends, write a blog post or comment on a post. Engage in a little group therapy at the office -- or here.
Rethink how the challenges you face now might be -- if not altogether avoided -- at least mitigated in the future. Dare to lose a listing opportunity by being brutally honest, knowing that the people who respect your honesty enough to hire you will be most likely to respect you throughout the transaction and find success.
Dare to decline an opportunity to represent a buyer who isn't realistic in his expectations, recognizing that this will give you more time to dazzle and delight the more serious clients.
This market is going to be with us for a while, and what that means is that the opportunities will be fewer and more difficult. But it doesn't mean that we can't each survive and thrive -- both professionally and personally.
We need to remember that our business has cycles, as do markets. We need to be ever aware of the warning signs of too much tension and compression, and we need to be prepared to deal with the occasional fatigue lest we are threatened with catastrophic failure.
Kris Berg is broker-owner of San Diego Castles Realty. She also writes a consumer-focused real estate blog, The San Diego Home Blog.
Letters From the Home Front
By Kris Berg
Inman News™
February 16, 2011
I was first introduced to the term "cyclic failure" in college. The idea is pretty simple, even intuitive: Repeated tension and compression cause stress, and this type of stress, applied over a long enough period of time, can cause fatigue.
Enough fatigue and the result is failure, be it a slab of concrete, a bungee cord -- or a real estate agent.
Most of us have spent the better part of the past five years feeling like underpaid test subjects in an engineering science lab. In fact, in the best of markets our work is defined by compression and tension. Find a client, serve the client, then go out and find another. Lather, rinse and repeat.
One minute, we are on top of the world, flush with listings or buyer clients, reveling in the ecstasy that is positive cash flow. The next, we are wondering how we will eat in 45 days. If you have been licensed for more than two closing cycles, you know this feeling too well. If you have lived through a couple hundred or more transactions, you know it can wear you thin.
Ten years ago, it was easier to bounce back. We were tested in a fairly controlled environment. We had our highs and lows, our successes and failures, but the laws of real estate assured us that hard work would pay off, commitment would triumph, and our down time and down moments would inevitably be followed by another opportunity.
The demand side used to be a given. People would move, after all, once every five years or so. Not so today. Oh, they would if they could, but they can't. Which isn't to say that this leaves the real estate agent curled up on the couch watching "Judge Judy."
Rather, we are just as busy as we were five years ago, the difference being we used to get paid for our efforts.
My husband and I have had four listing opportunities in as many weeks. Each one involved detailed market analyses, fancy presentations -- time and money. And each one involved us playing the role of evening anchor on a night when the news sucked:
•"No, your home is not worth more than it was in 2006. Yes, I know you added those ceiling fans, but still ..."
•"No, your home isn't worth what you paid in 2005. Well, sure, you could just wait until Thursday to list. Yes, more people generally start looking in the spring, but still…"
Buyers present their own challenges, unaware of the realities of today's lending environment or unwilling to accept that the rules apply to them:
•"Yes, I know you make a lot of money, but you started your new job yesterday and ..."
•"Yes, I know you can qualify for a loan, but you have a house to sell first, so short sales and bank-owned properties are not available to you and, by the way, your current home is not worth what it was in 2005 even though you painted the walls a pleasing shade of lilac and added those ceiling fans ..."
And then, if you are a listing agent, there is the standing inventory. Communication is easy when there is something to say. Finding new ways to tell a client that market times are longer, buyers are fewer, prices are flat at best, and patience is a virtue can tax the old thesaurus.
"I don't make the news; I just report it, and you need to reduce price" tends to lose its charm toward the end of a six-month listing.
Fatigue happens. How to overcome it and avoid all-out failure is the question for all the marbles. It's our marbles at stake, and I don't profess to have the answers, but I do know that stagnation is not one of them.
It's hard sometimes to clear the cobwebs, find humor where there seemingly is little, and to feel productive while you're knee-deep in a moss-covered market. It's harder yet to find professional satisfaction when your days are spent in an echo chamber, delivering the same unwelcome rhetoric.
I've been feeling a little fatigued lately and when this happens I give myself a little time off, followed by a swift kick in the britches. In a business where the meter is always running and all days are the same, I declare it a Monday and start by just doing something -- anything.
You can't win if your head's not in the game. Catch up on your industry reading, tinker with your website, retool your listing presentation, or rewrite your business plan. Preview homes, research and study market trends, write a blog post or comment on a post. Engage in a little group therapy at the office -- or here.
Rethink how the challenges you face now might be -- if not altogether avoided -- at least mitigated in the future. Dare to lose a listing opportunity by being brutally honest, knowing that the people who respect your honesty enough to hire you will be most likely to respect you throughout the transaction and find success.
Dare to decline an opportunity to represent a buyer who isn't realistic in his expectations, recognizing that this will give you more time to dazzle and delight the more serious clients.
This market is going to be with us for a while, and what that means is that the opportunities will be fewer and more difficult. But it doesn't mean that we can't each survive and thrive -- both professionally and personally.
We need to remember that our business has cycles, as do markets. We need to be ever aware of the warning signs of too much tension and compression, and we need to be prepared to deal with the occasional fatigue lest we are threatened with catastrophic failure.
Kris Berg is broker-owner of San Diego Castles Realty. She also writes a consumer-focused real estate blog, The San Diego Home Blog.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
New Bern Home Sales-selected neighborhoods
Steve Tyson’s Real Estate Update
Neuse Harbour
Active homes for sale by price range
Current number of homes on the market=8
Pending sales=0
Active homes for sale by price range
$240,000-$300,000=4
$334,900-$355,000=2
$,415,000-$435,000=2
There were 2 homes that sold and closed in Neuse Harbour in the last 12 months. The most expensive was $250,000
Stately Pines
Current homes on the market=5
Pending sales=0
Active homes for sale by price range
$179,900-$200,000=3
$215,000-$274,000=2
There were 10 homes that sold and closed in Stately Pines in the last 12 months. The most expensive house sold was $262,500.
Carolina Pines
Current homes on the market=13
Pending sales=3
Active homes for sale by price range
$150,000-$200,000=7
$201,000-$260,000=6
There were 24 homes that sold and closed in Carolina Pines in the last 12 months. The highest priced home sold was $249,000.
Tucker Creek
Current homes on the market=6
Pending sales=1
Active homes for sale by price range
$110,000-$200,000=5
$282,500=1
There were 14 homes that sold and closed in Tucker Creek in the last 12 months. The highest priced home sold was $275,000.
Total homes sold in Jan.2010=69
During the same time frame in 2011=81 homes were sold.
There are currently 1465 homes listed for sale in our multiple listing service. We are selling homes at a rate of 88 a month so there is still a large inventory on hand. It is definitely a buyer’s market.
Feel free to call or email me if you would like to have a customized absorption rate or a Comparable Market Analysis for your property. Each neighborhood can vary by quite a bit.
Craven County News
Just like a business the county needs to operate with fiscal restraint during these tough economic times. It is my intention to vote for a balanced budget in the upcoming budget session without raising taxes on our citizens. It won’t be easy, but we can do it.
As an elected official I serve at the pleasure of the public. If I can be of service to you on any local government issue please don’t hesitate to email me. And if you have an issue that pertains to the state government and are having trouble get a response from the state I am always willing to try to help.
Any suggestions to make this article better would be welcomed. I can be reached at SteveTyson@NCmove.com And remember you can always visit me online at www.NewBern-NC.Info
Realtor Steve Tyson
The Tyson Group Realtors
Neuse Harbour
Active homes for sale by price range
Current number of homes on the market=8
Pending sales=0
Active homes for sale by price range
$240,000-$300,000=4
$334,900-$355,000=2
$,415,000-$435,000=2
There were 2 homes that sold and closed in Neuse Harbour in the last 12 months. The most expensive was $250,000
Stately Pines
Current homes on the market=5
Pending sales=0
Active homes for sale by price range
$179,900-$200,000=3
$215,000-$274,000=2
There were 10 homes that sold and closed in Stately Pines in the last 12 months. The most expensive house sold was $262,500.
Carolina Pines
Current homes on the market=13
Pending sales=3
Active homes for sale by price range
$150,000-$200,000=7
$201,000-$260,000=6
There were 24 homes that sold and closed in Carolina Pines in the last 12 months. The highest priced home sold was $249,000.
Tucker Creek
Current homes on the market=6
Pending sales=1
Active homes for sale by price range
$110,000-$200,000=5
$282,500=1
There were 14 homes that sold and closed in Tucker Creek in the last 12 months. The highest priced home sold was $275,000.
Total homes sold in Jan.2010=69
During the same time frame in 2011=81 homes were sold.
There are currently 1465 homes listed for sale in our multiple listing service. We are selling homes at a rate of 88 a month so there is still a large inventory on hand. It is definitely a buyer’s market.
Feel free to call or email me if you would like to have a customized absorption rate or a Comparable Market Analysis for your property. Each neighborhood can vary by quite a bit.
Craven County News
Just like a business the county needs to operate with fiscal restraint during these tough economic times. It is my intention to vote for a balanced budget in the upcoming budget session without raising taxes on our citizens. It won’t be easy, but we can do it.
As an elected official I serve at the pleasure of the public. If I can be of service to you on any local government issue please don’t hesitate to email me. And if you have an issue that pertains to the state government and are having trouble get a response from the state I am always willing to try to help.
Any suggestions to make this article better would be welcomed. I can be reached at SteveTyson@NCmove.com And remember you can always visit me online at www.NewBern-NC.Info
Realtor Steve Tyson
The Tyson Group Realtors
Sunday, January 30, 2011
New Bern Home sales
Jan-2011 all home sales=58
Jan-2011 New home sales=16
Jan-2010 all home sales=69
Jan-2010 New Home Sales=13
Jan-2009 all home sales=55
Jan-2009 New Home Sales=15
Jan-2008 all homes sold=58
Jan-2008 New Home Sales=16
Jan-2011 New home sales=16
Jan-2010 all home sales=69
Jan-2010 New Home Sales=13
Jan-2009 all home sales=55
Jan-2009 New Home Sales=15
Jan-2008 all homes sold=58
Jan-2008 New Home Sales=16
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
New Home Construction
Daily Real Estate News
January 13, 2011
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Housing Starts Expected to Climb in 2011
New home construction is looking up this year.
During an economic update Wednesday at the International Builders' Show in Orlando David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, projected single-family housing starts to rise by 21 percent in 2011, reaching 575,000 units.
The estimate is slightly more conservative than the Dec. 30 projection of 716,000 housing starts this year by Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®. Both estimates assume sustained job growth, increasing U.S. population, as well as continued low interest rates driving construction.
Yun expects about 2 million jobs to be added in 2011. However, as NAHB presenter Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, pointed out, 2011 got off to a slow start with nonfarm payrolls rising only by 103,000 in December. He called the figure weaker than expected.
Credit is another factor. Lending remains tight, but if it opens up with safe underwriting standards for creditworthy buyers, Yun says there would be a bigger boost to the housing market with spillover benefits for the broader economy. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise gradually to 5.3 percent around the end of 2011; at the same time, unemployment should drop to 9.2 percent, according to NAR.
In addition, over the past 10 years the U.S. has added 27 million people. Continued population growth will also spur home construction and sales. “All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun says.
An even more conservative projection of 492,000 housing starts in 2011 was released by the Portland Cement Association during the International Builders Show Wednesday. Edward Sullivan, PCA chief economist, does not expect significant increases until 2012 due to tight lending standards, a high home inventory count, and unstable housing prices. He also says that new home construction will vary considerably by region.
January 13, 2011
Share
Housing Starts Expected to Climb in 2011
New home construction is looking up this year.
During an economic update Wednesday at the International Builders' Show in Orlando David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, projected single-family housing starts to rise by 21 percent in 2011, reaching 575,000 units.
The estimate is slightly more conservative than the Dec. 30 projection of 716,000 housing starts this year by Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®. Both estimates assume sustained job growth, increasing U.S. population, as well as continued low interest rates driving construction.
Yun expects about 2 million jobs to be added in 2011. However, as NAHB presenter Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, pointed out, 2011 got off to a slow start with nonfarm payrolls rising only by 103,000 in December. He called the figure weaker than expected.
Credit is another factor. Lending remains tight, but if it opens up with safe underwriting standards for creditworthy buyers, Yun says there would be a bigger boost to the housing market with spillover benefits for the broader economy. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise gradually to 5.3 percent around the end of 2011; at the same time, unemployment should drop to 9.2 percent, according to NAR.
In addition, over the past 10 years the U.S. has added 27 million people. Continued population growth will also spur home construction and sales. “All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun says.
An even more conservative projection of 492,000 housing starts in 2011 was released by the Portland Cement Association during the International Builders Show Wednesday. Edward Sullivan, PCA chief economist, does not expect significant increases until 2012 due to tight lending standards, a high home inventory count, and unstable housing prices. He also says that new home construction will vary considerably by region.
National Foreclosures
RISMEDIA, January 13, 2011—RealtyTrac, a leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, released its Year-End 2010 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows a total of 3,825,637 foreclosure filings—default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions—were reported on a record 2,871,891 U.S. properties in 2010, an increase of nearly 2% from 2009 and an increase of 23% from 2008. The report also shows that 2.23% of all U.S. housing units (one in 45) received at least one foreclosure filing during the year, up from 2.21% in 2009, 1.84% in 2008, 1.03% in 2007 and 0.58% in 2006.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 257,747 U.S. properties in December, a decrease of nearly 2% from the previous month and down 26% from December 2009—the biggest annual drop in foreclosure activity since RealtyTrac began publishing its foreclosure report in January 2005 and giving December the lowest monthly total since June 2008.
December Default notices (NOD, LIS) decreased 4% from the previous month and were down 35% from December 2009; Scheduled foreclosure auctions (NTS, NFS) decreased 3% from the previous month and were down 20% from December 2009; and bank repossessions (REO) increased nearly 4% from the previous month—thanks in part to substantial month-over-month increases in some states such as Nevada (71% increase), Arizona (52% increase) and California (47% increase)—but were still down 24% from December 2009.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 799,064 U.S. properties in the fourth quarter, a 14% decrease from the previous quarter and an 8% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2009. The fourth quarter total was the lowest quarterly total since Q4 2008.
“Total properties receiving foreclosure filings would have easily exceeded 3 million in 2010 had it not been for the fourth quarter drop in foreclosure activity—triggered primarily by the continuing controversy surrounding foreclosure documentation and procedures that prompted many major lenders to temporarily halt some foreclosure proceedings,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Even so, 2010 foreclosure activity still hit a record high for our report, and many of the foreclosure proceedings that were stopped in late 2010—which we estimate may be as high as a quarter million—will likely be re-started and add to the numbers in early 2011.”
Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates
More than 9% of Nevada housing units (one in 11) received at least one foreclosure filing in 2010, giving it the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate for the fourth consecutive year despite a 5% decrease in foreclosure activity from 2009. Nevada foreclosure activity in December increased 18% from the previous month and was up 14% from December 2009. Fourth quarter foreclosure activity in Nevada decreased nearly 7% from the previous quarter but increased 19% from the fourth quarter of 2009.
Arizona registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the second year in a row, with 5.73% of its housing units (one in 17) receiving at least one foreclosure filing in 2010, and Florida registered the nation’s third highest foreclosure rate, with 5.51% of its housing units (one in 18) receiving at least one foreclosure filing during the year.
Other states with 2010 foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were California (4.08%), Utah (3.44%), Georgia (3.25%), Michigan (3.00%), Idaho (2.98%), Illinois (2.87%), and Colorado (2.51%).
California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan account for half of national total
Five states accounted for 51% of the nation’s total foreclosure activity in 2010: California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan. Together these five states documented nearly 1.5 million properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the year despite annual decreases in the three states with the most foreclosure activity.
A total of 546,669 California properties received a foreclosure filing in 2010, a decrease of nearly 14% from 2009 but still the largest state total. After hitting a two-year low in November, California foreclosure activity rebounded nearly 15% higher in December but was still down 18% from December 2009.
Florida posted the nation’s second biggest total in 2010, with 485,286 properties receiving a foreclosure filing—a 6% decrease from 2009. Florida foreclosure activity in December hit the lowest monthly level since July 2007, down 22% from the previous month and down nearly 54% from December 2009.
A total of 155,878 Arizona properties received a foreclosure filing in 2010, a 4% decrease from 2009 but the third biggest state total for the third straight year. Arizona foreclosure activity in December jumped nearly 31% higher from a 32-month low in November, but was still down nearly 33% from December 2009.
Illinois posted the fourth biggest state total, with 151,304 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in 2010, and Michigan posted the fifth biggest state total, with 135,874 properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the year. Foreclosure activity in both states increased about 15% from 2009.
Other states with 2010 totals among the 10 biggest in the country were Georgia (130,966), Texas (118,923), Ohio (108,160), Nevada (106,160), and New Jersey (64,808).
For more information, visit www.realtytrac.com.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 257,747 U.S. properties in December, a decrease of nearly 2% from the previous month and down 26% from December 2009—the biggest annual drop in foreclosure activity since RealtyTrac began publishing its foreclosure report in January 2005 and giving December the lowest monthly total since June 2008.
December Default notices (NOD, LIS) decreased 4% from the previous month and were down 35% from December 2009; Scheduled foreclosure auctions (NTS, NFS) decreased 3% from the previous month and were down 20% from December 2009; and bank repossessions (REO) increased nearly 4% from the previous month—thanks in part to substantial month-over-month increases in some states such as Nevada (71% increase), Arizona (52% increase) and California (47% increase)—but were still down 24% from December 2009.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 799,064 U.S. properties in the fourth quarter, a 14% decrease from the previous quarter and an 8% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2009. The fourth quarter total was the lowest quarterly total since Q4 2008.
“Total properties receiving foreclosure filings would have easily exceeded 3 million in 2010 had it not been for the fourth quarter drop in foreclosure activity—triggered primarily by the continuing controversy surrounding foreclosure documentation and procedures that prompted many major lenders to temporarily halt some foreclosure proceedings,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Even so, 2010 foreclosure activity still hit a record high for our report, and many of the foreclosure proceedings that were stopped in late 2010—which we estimate may be as high as a quarter million—will likely be re-started and add to the numbers in early 2011.”
Nevada, Arizona, Florida post top state foreclosure rates
More than 9% of Nevada housing units (one in 11) received at least one foreclosure filing in 2010, giving it the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate for the fourth consecutive year despite a 5% decrease in foreclosure activity from 2009. Nevada foreclosure activity in December increased 18% from the previous month and was up 14% from December 2009. Fourth quarter foreclosure activity in Nevada decreased nearly 7% from the previous quarter but increased 19% from the fourth quarter of 2009.
Arizona registered the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate for the second year in a row, with 5.73% of its housing units (one in 17) receiving at least one foreclosure filing in 2010, and Florida registered the nation’s third highest foreclosure rate, with 5.51% of its housing units (one in 18) receiving at least one foreclosure filing during the year.
Other states with 2010 foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were California (4.08%), Utah (3.44%), Georgia (3.25%), Michigan (3.00%), Idaho (2.98%), Illinois (2.87%), and Colorado (2.51%).
California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan account for half of national total
Five states accounted for 51% of the nation’s total foreclosure activity in 2010: California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois and Michigan. Together these five states documented nearly 1.5 million properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the year despite annual decreases in the three states with the most foreclosure activity.
A total of 546,669 California properties received a foreclosure filing in 2010, a decrease of nearly 14% from 2009 but still the largest state total. After hitting a two-year low in November, California foreclosure activity rebounded nearly 15% higher in December but was still down 18% from December 2009.
Florida posted the nation’s second biggest total in 2010, with 485,286 properties receiving a foreclosure filing—a 6% decrease from 2009. Florida foreclosure activity in December hit the lowest monthly level since July 2007, down 22% from the previous month and down nearly 54% from December 2009.
A total of 155,878 Arizona properties received a foreclosure filing in 2010, a 4% decrease from 2009 but the third biggest state total for the third straight year. Arizona foreclosure activity in December jumped nearly 31% higher from a 32-month low in November, but was still down nearly 33% from December 2009.
Illinois posted the fourth biggest state total, with 151,304 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in 2010, and Michigan posted the fifth biggest state total, with 135,874 properties receiving a foreclosure filing during the year. Foreclosure activity in both states increased about 15% from 2009.
Other states with 2010 totals among the 10 biggest in the country were Georgia (130,966), Texas (118,923), Ohio (108,160), Nevada (106,160), and New Jersey (64,808).
For more information, visit www.realtytrac.com.
Sunday, January 09, 2011
Save a home today
The current crisis in the United States housing market; combined with the worst economic recession since the Great Depression; is causing a record number of home foreclosures in many regions of the nation. Some areas are faring better than others; but no state or region has been immune. If you or someone you know is among the millions today affected by the prospect of foreclosure, understand that you are not alone. The depth of the housing crisis; combined with the likelihood that the economic recovery will be a slow one; will result in more and more distressed propertie for several years to come.
A foreclosure can have devistating consequences for a homeowner. Not only will their credit be damaged for at least 7 years; some employors will hesitate to hire someone with a foreclosure in their financial history. Unfortunately, too many homeowners facing foreclosure proceed without a Realtor that is trained in the arcane financial science of short sales. A;s a result homeowners often do not get the best advice they need to avoid foreclosure. Now more than ever, you need to find an advocate for you and your family's interests, one who is prepared to handle your specific needs. A CDPE has that training.
Real estate professionals with the Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Designation have trained extensively to understand the options, solutions, and effective methods for dealing with homeowners facing hardships. Don't risk your financial future and the potential sale of your home with a Real estate Agent who does not have the training to be successful in this area of real estate. Steve tyson has completed the necessary training to become a certified CDPE. Call Steve today or visit his website at http://www.newbern-nc.info/ for more information.
A foreclosure can have devistating consequences for a homeowner. Not only will their credit be damaged for at least 7 years; some employors will hesitate to hire someone with a foreclosure in their financial history. Unfortunately, too many homeowners facing foreclosure proceed without a Realtor that is trained in the arcane financial science of short sales. A;s a result homeowners often do not get the best advice they need to avoid foreclosure. Now more than ever, you need to find an advocate for you and your family's interests, one who is prepared to handle your specific needs. A CDPE has that training.
Real estate professionals with the Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Designation have trained extensively to understand the options, solutions, and effective methods for dealing with homeowners facing hardships. Don't risk your financial future and the potential sale of your home with a Real estate Agent who does not have the training to be successful in this area of real estate. Steve tyson has completed the necessary training to become a certified CDPE. Call Steve today or visit his website at http://www.newbern-nc.info/ for more information.
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