The Administration’s goal is to promote stability for both the housing
market and homeowners. To meet these objectives in the context of
a very challenging market, the Administration developed a broad
approach implementing state and local housing agency initiatives, tax
credits for homebuyers, neighborhood stabilization and community
development programs, mortgage modifi cations and refi nancing,
continued Federal Housing Administration (FHA) engagement, and
support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In addition, Federal
Reserve and Treasury MBS purchase programs have helped to keep
mortgage interest rates at record lows over the past year. More detail
on the Administration’s efforts can be found in the Appendix.
October 2010 Scorecard on Administration’s
Comprehensive Housing Initiative
The President’s housing market recovery efforts began immediately after
taking offi ce in February 2009. The October 2010 housing scorecard
includes the following key indicators of market health and results of the
Administration’s comprehensive response, as outlined above:
• Families continued to benefit from the lowest rates in
history on 30-year fixed mortgages. Since April of 2009,
record low rates have helped more than 7.1 million homeowners
to refi nance, resulting in more stable home prices and $12.7
billion in total borrower savings.
• As expected with the expiration of the Homebuyer Tax
Credit, new and existing home sales remained below
levels seen in the first half of 2010. At the same time, home
prices remained level in the past year after 33 straight months of
decline and homeowners added $95 billion in home equity in the
second quarter.
• More than 3.52 million modification arrangements were
started between April 2009 and the end of August 2010
—nearly triple the number of foreclosure completions
during that time. These included more than 1.3 million trial
Home Affordable Modifi cation Program (HAMP) modifi cation
starts, more than 510,000 Federal Housing Administration (FHA)
loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, and more
than 1.6 million proprietary modifi cations under HOPE Now.
While some homeowners may have received help from more than
one program, the number of agreements offered nearly tripled
foreclosure completions for the same period (1.3 million).
• At nine months, almost 90 percent of homeowners
remain in their permanent HAMP modification, with 11
percent defaulted. Early data indicate that HAMP permanent
modifi cations are performing well over time, with lower
delinquency rates than those reported by the industry at large.
At nine months, less than 16 percent of permanent modifi cations
are 60+ days delinquent. To view the September HAMP Servicer
Performance Report, visit: http://www.fi nancialstability.gov/
docs/Sept%20MHA%20Public%202010.pdf
Data in the scorecard also show that the recovery in the housing
market continues to remain fragile, for example, foreclosure
completions continue to move upward and a large supply of homes
are being held off the market. While the recovery will take place over
time, the Administration remains committed to its efforts to prevent
avoidable foreclosures and stabilize the housing market.
The impact of recent new and expanded resources is expected to
contribute to progress captured in future Housing Scorecards. For
example, in July the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced
a short refi nance option targeted to help people who owe more on
their mortgage than their home is worth because their local markets
saw large declines in home values. The option will allow certain
underwater non-FHA borrowers – those current on their existing
mortgage and whose lenders agree to write off at least 10 percent of
the unpaid principal balance of the fi rst mortgage – the opportunity to
qualify for a new FHA-insured mortgage.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development and Research
e Obama Administration’s E orts
To Stabilize e Housing Market
and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
House Prices Show Signs Of Stabilizing
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Expectations On House Prices Have Shifted Up From 2009
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U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Mortgage Aid Has Been Extended More an 3 Million Times,
Outpacing Foreclosures
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Mortgage Rates Fall To Record Low And Affordability Index Remains High
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Foreclosure Starts And Completions Remain Elevated
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7.1 Million Homeowners Have Refinanced Since April 1, 2009
ˆ ‰ Š €€
€ €
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U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Homeowners Save From Reduced Mortgage Payments
€ ‚
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Home Equity Up More an $1 Trillion Since First Quarter 2009
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FHA Supports Mortgage Lending During Crisis
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•
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Housing Counselors Serve Millions Of Families
—
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U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEET
Indicator is Period Last Period Year Ago As of Dec 2008 Latest Release
Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent) 4.21 4.19 5.00 5.10 21-Oct-10
Housing Affordability (index) 168.3 162.2 161.9 166.3 August-10
Home Prices (indices)
Case Shiller (NSA)
FHFA (SA)
148.9
192.4
148.0
193.4
144.3
198.9
150.5
198.9
July-10
July-10
Home Sales (thousands, SA)
New
Existing
First Time Buyers
24.0
344.2
173.0 (p)
24.0
320.0
161.7
33.8
425.0
215.6
31.4
395.0
174.8
August-10
August-10
August-10
Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply (months)
New Homes for Sale (thousands, SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (months,SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market (thousands)
3,982
11.6
206
8.6
3,743
4,007
12.5
209
8.7
3,628
3,924
9.2
262
7.8
3,501
3,700
9.4
353
11.2
3,508
August-10
August-10
August-10
August-10
2nd Q 10
Mortgage Originations (thousands)
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
1,132.7
925.0
1,050.9
614.7
1,941.0
992.4 (r)
767.2
986.4
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
FHA Originations (thousands)
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyers
47.4
63.5
44.5
(p)
(p)
(p)
51.7
67.2
44.9
(r)
(r)
(r)
60.6
103.4
84.6
62.9
72.7
56.2
September-10
September-10
September-10
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
5.2
36.4
12.4
5.2
36.2
12.5
5.8
36.3
14.7
4.4
34.1
14.3
September-10
September-10
August-10
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
1747.0
1974.9
558.0
1,782.3
1,960.6
559.6
1760.7
1964.6
453.0
912.8
1,642.1
333.1
September-10
September-10
August-10
Underwater Borrowers (thousands) 10,971.2 11,276.9 10,155.6 (a) -- 2nd Q 10
Foreclosure Actions (thousands)
Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts)
Notice of Foreclosure Sale
Foreclosure Completions
Short Sales
102.4
142.9
102.1
18.7 (p)
96.5
147.0
95.4
29.1
122.2
133.7
87.8
22.9
121.5
103.0
78.9
13.8
September-10
September-10
September-10
July-10
HOUSING ASSISTANCE AND STABILIZATION PERFORMANCE METRICS
Indicator is Period Last Period Cumulative From Apr 1, 2009 Latest Release
Distressed Homeowners Assisted (thousands)
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifi cations
35.3
27.8
56.4
115.8
26.6
33.3
39.2
120.4
1,369.4
495.9
568.1
1,675.6
September-10
September-10
September-10
August-10
Counseled Borrowers (thousands) 713.5 839.4 4,272 2nd Q 10
Borrower Annual Savings ($ millions)
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
All Refi nances
--
--
--
--
--
--
2,313.3
2,407.5
12,737.3
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
Activities Completed Under NSP (housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance
3,033
1,041
1,147
2,537
667
1,094
9,249 [36,292]
2,987 [8,252]
3,768 [18,000]
(b)
(b)
(b)
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions) 95.4 201.1 1,020.3 2nd Q 10
SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, p = preliminary, a = adjusted for methodology change, r = revised, b = brackets include units in process.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
A. Items in Tables
Description Frequency Sources Notes on Methodology
Distressed Homeowners Assisted
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifi cations
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
Treasury
Treasury
HUD
Hope Now Alliance
As reported.
As reported.
All FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions.
All proprietary modifi cations completed.
Counseled Borrowers (thousands) Quarterly HUD Housing counseling activity reported by all HUD-approved housing counselors.
Borrower Annual Savings
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
All Refi nances
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
HUD, Treasury, and Freddie Mac
HUD and Treasury
HUD, and MBA
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP trial modifi cations
and Freddie Mac monthly savings estimates.
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP permanent
modifi cations and median monthly savings estimates.
Refi nance originations (see below) multiplied by HUD estimate of annualized savings per refi nance.
Completed Activities Under NSP (housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
HUD
HUD
HUD
Housing units constructed/rehabilitated using Neighborhood Stabilization Program.
Bracketed numbers include units in process, to be completed by 3/2013.
Housing units demolished/cleared using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed
numbers as above.
Completed downpayment assistance or non-amortizing second mortgages by grantee to
make purchase of NSP unit affordable. Bracketed numbers as above.
Change in Aggregate Home Equity Quarterly Federal Reserve Board Difference in aggregate household owners’ equity in real estate as reported in the Federal
Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period.
Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM) Weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as reported for 30-Year fi xed rate mortgages (FRM).
Housing Affordability Monthly National Association of Realtors ® NAR’s composite housing affordability index as reported. A value of 100 means that a
family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a
median-priced home. An index above 100 signifi es that family earning the median income
has more than enough income to qualify.
Home Prices
Case-Shiller (NSA)
FHFA (SA)
Monthy
Monthy
Standard and Poor’s
Federal Housing Finance Agency
Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s
recommends use of not seasonally adjusted index when making monthly comparisons.
FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US, January 1991 = 100.
Home Sales (SA)
New
Existing
First Time Buyers
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
HUD and Census Bureau
National Association of Realtors ®
NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. A newly constructed house is considered
sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs
before construction has actually started.
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. Existing-home sales, which include singlefamily,
townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs
from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on
contracts or the acceptance of a deposit.
Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National
Association of Realtors ® annual estimate of fi rst time buyer share of existing home sales.
Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply
New Homes for Sale (SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Quarterly
National Association of Realtors ®
National Association of Realtors ®
HUD and Census Bureau
HUD and Census Bureau
Census Bureau
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
Mortgage Originations
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Quarterly
Quarterly
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
HUD estimate of refi nance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refi ance
originations.
HUD estimate of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of
home purchase originations.
FHA Originations
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyers
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
HUD
HUD
HUD
FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward
due to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary.
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
LPS-McDash Analytics
LPS-McDash Analytics
HUD
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force.
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
LPS-McDash, MBA, and HUD
LPS-McDash, MBA, and HUD
HUD
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.
Underwater Borrowers Quarterly First American CoreLogic As reported. Due to change in reporting methodology, underwater borrower estimates prior to
the third quarter of 2009 are adjusted to be compatible with current estimates.
Foreclosure Actions
Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts)
Notice of Foreclosure Sale
Foreclosure Completions
Short sales
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Realty Trac
Realty Trac
Realty Trac
Core Logic
Reported counts of notice of default plus lis pendens. Some foreclosure starts may be omitted in
states where the fi ling of a notice of default is optional.
Notice of sale (auctions).
Real Estate Owned (REO).
Count of Short Sales for the month as reported.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
B. Notes on Charts.
1. Monthly house price trends shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price set equal to the median price of an existing
home sold in January 2003 as reported by the National Association of Realtors. Indices shown: S&P/Case Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January
2000 = 100, and FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US (SA), January 1991 = 100.
2. S&P/Case-Shiller 20 metro composite index (NSA) as reported monthly. Futures index fi gures report forward expectations of the level of the S&P/Case Shiller
index as of the date indicated, estimated from prices of futures contracts reported by Radar Logic.
3. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales divided by 12.
4. HUD estimate of refi nance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refi nance originations.
5. Cumulative HAMP modifi cations started, FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, plus proprietary modifi cations completed as reported by
Hope Now Alliance. Some homeowners may be counted in more than one category. Foreclosure completions are properties entering Real Estate Owned
(REO) as reported by Realty Trac.
6. Foreclosure starts include notice of default and lis pendens, completions are properties entering REO. Both as reported by Realty Trac. See “Foreclosure
Actions” above.
7. See “Borrower Annual Savings” above.
8. FHA market shares as FHA purchase and refi nance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and refi nance mortgage originations as noted in
“Mortgage Originations” above.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
The Administration has taken a broad set of actions to stabilize the housing market and help American
homeowners. A year ago, stress in the fi nancial system had severely reduced the supply of mortgage credit,
limiting the ability of Americans to buy homes or refi nance mortgages. Millions of responsible families who
had made their monthly payments and had fulfi lled their obligations saw their property values fall. They also
found themselves unable to refi nance at lower mortgage rates.
In February 2009, less than one month after taking offi ce, President Obama announced the Homeowner
Affordability and Stability Plan. As part of this plan and through other housing initiatives, the Administration
has taken the following actions to strengthen the housing market:
• Supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure continued access to affordable mortgage credit;
• The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury purchased more than $1.4 trillion in agency mortgage
backed securities through independent MBS purchase programs, helping to keep mortgage rates at
historic lows;
• Launched a modifi cation initiative to help homeowners reduce mortgage payments to affordable levels
and to prevent avoidable foreclosures;
• Launched a $23.5 billion Housing Finance Agencies Initiative to increase sustainable homeownership
and rental resources;
• Supported the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which has helped 2.5 million American families
purchase homes;
• Provided more than $5 billion in support for affordable rental housing through low income housing tax
credit programs and $6.92 billion in support for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to restore
neighborhoods hardest hit by the concentrated foreclosures;
• Created the $4.1 billion HFA Hardest Hit Fund for innovative foreclosure prevention programs in the
nation’s hardest hit housing markets.
• Supported home purchase and refi nance activity through the FHA to provide access to affordable
mortgage capital and help homeowners prevent foreclosures.
###
AppendixThe Administration’s goal is to promote stability for both the housing
market and homeowners. To meet these objectives in the context of
a very challenging market, the Administration developed a broad
approach implementing state and local housing agency initiatives, tax
credits for homebuyers, neighborhood stabilization and community
development programs, mortgage modifi cations and refi nancing,
continued Federal Housing Administration (FHA) engagement, and
support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In addition, Federal
Reserve and Treasury MBS purchase programs have helped to keep
mortgage interest rates at record lows over the past year. More detail
on the Administration’s efforts can be found in the Appendix.
October 2010 Scorecard on Administration’s
Comprehensive Housing Initiative
The President’s housing market recovery efforts began immediately after
taking offi ce in February 2009. The October 2010 housing scorecard
includes the following key indicators of market health and results of the
Administration’s comprehensive response, as outlined above:
• Families continued to benefit from the lowest rates in
history on 30-year fixed mortgages. Since April of 2009,
record low rates have helped more than 7.1 million homeowners
to refi nance, resulting in more stable home prices and $12.7
billion in total borrower savings.
• As expected with the expiration of the Homebuyer Tax
Credit, new and existing home sales remained below
levels seen in the first half of 2010. At the same time, home
prices remained level in the past year after 33 straight months of
decline and homeowners added $95 billion in home equity in the
second quarter.
• More than 3.52 million modification arrangements were
started between April 2009 and the end of August 2010
—nearly triple the number of foreclosure completions
during that time. These included more than 1.3 million trial
Home Affordable Modifi cation Program (HAMP) modifi cation
starts, more than 510,000 Federal Housing Administration (FHA)
loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, and more
than 1.6 million proprietary modifi cations under HOPE Now.
While some homeowners may have received help from more than
one program, the number of agreements offered nearly tripled
foreclosure completions for the same period (1.3 million).
• At nine months, almost 90 percent of homeowners
remain in their permanent HAMP modification, with 11
percent defaulted. Early data indicate that HAMP permanent
modifi cations are performing well over time, with lower
delinquency rates than those reported by the industry at large.
At nine months, less than 16 percent of permanent modifi cations
are 60+ days delinquent. To view the September HAMP Servicer
Performance Report, visit: http://www.fi nancialstability.gov/
docs/Sept%20MHA%20Public%202010.pdf
Data in the scorecard also show that the recovery in the housing
market continues to remain fragile, for example, foreclosure
completions continue to move upward and a large supply of homes
are being held off the market. While the recovery will take place over
time, the Administration remains committed to its efforts to prevent
avoidable foreclosures and stabilize the housing market.
The impact of recent new and expanded resources is expected to
contribute to progress captured in future Housing Scorecards. For
example, in July the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced
a short refi nance option targeted to help people who owe more on
their mortgage than their home is worth because their local markets
saw large declines in home values. The option will allow certain
underwater non-FHA borrowers – those current on their existing
mortgage and whose lenders agree to write off at least 10 percent of
the unpaid principal balance of the fi rst mortgage – the opportunity to
qualify for a new FHA-insured mortgage.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development and Research
e Obama Administration’s E orts
To Stabilize e Housing Market
and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
House Prices Show Signs Of Stabilizing
€‚
ƒ
‚
„… †
Existing And New Home Sales
€
‚
ƒ €
„… ƒ †
‡ …
ˆ †
ƒ …
Existing Homes On e Market Below Peak, But Number Of
Units Held Off e Market Has Increased
€ ‚
ƒ „
…
†
‡ˆˆ
‡‰
‡ ˆ
‡†
‰ˆˆ
‰‰
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Expectations On House Prices Have Shifted Up From 2009
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™
š …
‚ ‰”
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›…
•
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•
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Ž ‘ƒ ’ “
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U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Mortgage Aid Has Been Extended More an 3 Million Times,
Outpacing Foreclosures
€
‚ ƒ
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‡ ‚ˆ ‰ Š ‹ ‚ † Œ ‹ ‰
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Mortgage Rates Fall To Record Low And Affordability Index Remains High
€
‚ ƒ
„
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†
‡ ˆ
‚ ‰
„
Foreclosure Starts And Completions Remain Elevated
€ € ‚ ƒ € €
„
€
… †
‡
ƒ
7.1 Million Homeowners Have Refinanced Since April 1, 2009
ˆ ‰ Š €€
€ €
‹ Œ
€
Ž‘’
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Homeowners Save From Reduced Mortgage Payments
€ ‚
ƒ € „ € … € †‡‚
ˆ ‰€ Š ‚
‹
Œ
‹
Home Equity Up More an $1 Trillion Since First Quarter 2009
Ž‘ ’ “” Š “ “
„
ƒ …
‚
•
•
FHA Supports Mortgage Lending During Crisis
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Housing Counselors Serve Millions Of Families
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U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEET
Indicator is Period Last Period Year Ago As of Dec 2008 Latest Release
Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent) 4.21 4.19 5.00 5.10 21-Oct-10
Housing Affordability (index) 168.3 162.2 161.9 166.3 August-10
Home Prices (indices)
Case Shiller (NSA)
FHFA (SA)
148.9
192.4
148.0
193.4
144.3
198.9
150.5
198.9
July-10
July-10
Home Sales (thousands, SA)
New
Existing
First Time Buyers
24.0
344.2
173.0 (p)
24.0
320.0
161.7
33.8
425.0
215.6
31.4
395.0
174.8
August-10
August-10
August-10
Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply (months)
New Homes for Sale (thousands, SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (months,SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market (thousands)
3,982
11.6
206
8.6
3,743
4,007
12.5
209
8.7
3,628
3,924
9.2
262
7.8
3,501
3,700
9.4
353
11.2
3,508
August-10
August-10
August-10
August-10
2nd Q 10
Mortgage Originations (thousands)
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
1,132.7
925.0
1,050.9
614.7
1,941.0
992.4 (r)
767.2
986.4
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
FHA Originations (thousands)
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyers
47.4
63.5
44.5
(p)
(p)
(p)
51.7
67.2
44.9
(r)
(r)
(r)
60.6
103.4
84.6
62.9
72.7
56.2
September-10
September-10
September-10
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
5.2
36.4
12.4
5.2
36.2
12.5
5.8
36.3
14.7
4.4
34.1
14.3
September-10
September-10
August-10
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
1747.0
1974.9
558.0
1,782.3
1,960.6
559.6
1760.7
1964.6
453.0
912.8
1,642.1
333.1
September-10
September-10
August-10
Underwater Borrowers (thousands) 10,971.2 11,276.9 10,155.6 (a) -- 2nd Q 10
Foreclosure Actions (thousands)
Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts)
Notice of Foreclosure Sale
Foreclosure Completions
Short Sales
102.4
142.9
102.1
18.7 (p)
96.5
147.0
95.4
29.1
122.2
133.7
87.8
22.9
121.5
103.0
78.9
13.8
September-10
September-10
September-10
July-10
HOUSING ASSISTANCE AND STABILIZATION PERFORMANCE METRICS
Indicator is Period Last Period Cumulative From Apr 1, 2009 Latest Release
Distressed Homeowners Assisted (thousands)
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifi cations
35.3
27.8
56.4
115.8
26.6
33.3
39.2
120.4
1,369.4
495.9
568.1
1,675.6
September-10
September-10
September-10
August-10
Counseled Borrowers (thousands) 713.5 839.4 4,272 2nd Q 10
Borrower Annual Savings ($ millions)
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
All Refi nances
--
--
--
--
--
--
2,313.3
2,407.5
12,737.3
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
Activities Completed Under NSP (housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance
3,033
1,041
1,147
2,537
667
1,094
9,249 [36,292]
2,987 [8,252]
3,768 [18,000]
(b)
(b)
(b)
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions) 95.4 201.1 1,020.3 2nd Q 10
SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, p = preliminary, a = adjusted for methodology change, r = revised, b = brackets include units in process.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
A. Items in Tables
Description Frequency Sources Notes on Methodology
Distressed Homeowners Assisted
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifi cations
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
Treasury
Treasury
HUD
Hope Now Alliance
As reported.
As reported.
All FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions.
All proprietary modifi cations completed.
Counseled Borrowers (thousands) Quarterly HUD Housing counseling activity reported by all HUD-approved housing counselors.
Borrower Annual Savings
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
All Refi nances
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
HUD, Treasury, and Freddie Mac
HUD and Treasury
HUD, and MBA
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP trial modifi cations
and Freddie Mac monthly savings estimates.
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP permanent
modifi cations and median monthly savings estimates.
Refi nance originations (see below) multiplied by HUD estimate of annualized savings per refi nance.
Completed Activities Under NSP (housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
HUD
HUD
HUD
Housing units constructed/rehabilitated using Neighborhood Stabilization Program.
Bracketed numbers include units in process, to be completed by 3/2013.
Housing units demolished/cleared using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed
numbers as above.
Completed downpayment assistance or non-amortizing second mortgages by grantee to
make purchase of NSP unit affordable. Bracketed numbers as above.
Change in Aggregate Home Equity Quarterly Federal Reserve Board Difference in aggregate household owners’ equity in real estate as reported in the Federal
Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period.
Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM) Weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as reported for 30-Year fi xed rate mortgages (FRM).
Housing Affordability Monthly National Association of Realtors ® NAR’s composite housing affordability index as reported. A value of 100 means that a
family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a
median-priced home. An index above 100 signifi es that family earning the median income
has more than enough income to qualify.
Home Prices
Case-Shiller (NSA)
FHFA (SA)
Monthy
Monthy
Standard and Poor’s
Federal Housing Finance Agency
Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s
recommends use of not seasonally adjusted index when making monthly comparisons.
FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US, January 1991 = 100.
Home Sales (SA)
New
Existing
First Time Buyers
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
HUD and Census Bureau
National Association of Realtors ®
NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. A newly constructed house is considered
sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs
before construction has actually started.
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. Existing-home sales, which include singlefamily,
townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs
from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on
contracts or the acceptance of a deposit.
Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National
Association of Realtors ® annual estimate of fi rst time buyer share of existing home sales.
Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply
New Homes for Sale (SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Quarterly
National Association of Realtors ®
National Association of Realtors ®
HUD and Census Bureau
HUD and Census Bureau
Census Bureau
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
Mortgage Originations
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Quarterly
Quarterly
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
HUD estimate of refi nance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refi ance
originations.
HUD estimate of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of
home purchase originations.
FHA Originations
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyers
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
HUD
HUD
HUD
FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward
due to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary.
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
LPS-McDash Analytics
LPS-McDash Analytics
HUD
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force.
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
LPS-McDash, MBA, and HUD
LPS-McDash, MBA, and HUD
HUD
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.
Underwater Borrowers Quarterly First American CoreLogic As reported. Due to change in reporting methodology, underwater borrower estimates prior to
the third quarter of 2009 are adjusted to be compatible with current estimates.
Foreclosure Actions
Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts)
Notice of Foreclosure Sale
Foreclosure Completions
Short sales
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Realty Trac
Realty Trac
Realty Trac
Core Logic
Reported counts of notice of default plus lis pendens. Some foreclosure starts may be omitted in
states where the fi ling of a notice of default is optional.
Notice of sale (auctions).
Real Estate Owned (REO).
Count of Short Sales for the month as reported.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
B. Notes on Charts.
1. Monthly house price trends shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price set equal to the median price of an existing
home sold in January 2003 as reported by the National Association of Realtors. Indices shown: S&P/Case Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January
2000 = 100, and FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US (SA), January 1991 = 100.
2. S&P/Case-Shiller 20 metro composite index (NSA) as reported monthly. Futures index fi gures report forward expectations of the level of the S&P/Case Shiller
index as of the date indicated, estimated from prices of futures contracts reported by Radar Logic.
3. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales divided by 12.
4. HUD estimate of refi nance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refi nance originations.
5. Cumulative HAMP modifi cations started, FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, plus proprietary modifi cations completed as reported by
Hope Now Alliance. Some homeowners may be counted in more than one category. Foreclosure completions are properties entering Real Estate Owned
(REO) as reported by Realty Trac.
6. Foreclosure starts include notice of default and lis pendens, completions are properties entering REO. Both as reported by Realty Trac. See “Foreclosure
Actions” above.
7. See “Borrower Annual Savings” above.
8. FHA market shares as FHA purchase and refi nance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and refi nance mortgage originations as noted in
“Mortgage Originations” above.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
The Administration has taken a broad set of actions to stabilize the housing market and help American
homeowners. A year ago, stress in the fi nancial system had severely reduced the supply of mortgage credit,
limiting the ability of Americans to buy homes or refi nance mortgages. Millions of responsible families who
had made their monthly payments and had fulfi lled their obligations saw their property values fall. They also
found themselves unable to refi nance at lower mortgage rates.
In February 2009, less than one month after taking offi ce, President Obama announced the Homeowner
Affordability and Stability Plan. As part of this plan and through other housing initiatives, the Administration
has taken the following actions to strengthen the housing market:
• Supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure continued access to affordable mortgage credit;
• The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury purchased more than $1.4 trillion in agency mortgage
backed securities through independent MBS purchase programs, helping to keep mortgage rates at
historic lows;
• Launched a modifi cation initiative to help homeowners reduce mortgage payments to affordable levels
and to prevent avoidable foreclosures;
• Launched a $23.5 billion Housing Finance Agencies Initiative to increase sustainable homeownership
and rental resources;
• Supported the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which has helped 2.5 million American families
purchase homes;
• Provided more than $5 billion in support for affordable rental housing through low income housing tax
credit programs and $6.92 billion in support for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to restore
neighborhoods hardest hit by the concentrated foreclosures;
• Created the $4.1 billion HFA Hardest Hit Fund for innovative foreclosure prevention programs in the
nation’s hardest hit housing markets.
• Supported home purchase and refi nance activity through the FHA to provide access to affordable
mortgage capital and help homeowners prevent foreclosures.
###
AppendixThe Administration’s goal is to promote stability for both the housing
market and homeowners. To meet these objectives in the context of
a very challenging market, the Administration developed a broad
approach implementing state and local housing agency initiatives, tax
credits for homebuyers, neighborhood stabilization and community
development programs, mortgage modifi cations and refi nancing,
continued Federal Housing Administration (FHA) engagement, and
support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In addition, Federal
Reserve and Treasury MBS purchase programs have helped to keep
mortgage interest rates at record lows over the past year. More detail
on the Administration’s efforts can be found in the Appendix.
October 2010 Scorecard on Administration’s
Comprehensive Housing Initiative
The President’s housing market recovery efforts began immediately after
taking offi ce in February 2009. The October 2010 housing scorecard
includes the following key indicators of market health and results of the
Administration’s comprehensive response, as outlined above:
• Families continued to benefit from the lowest rates in
history on 30-year fixed mortgages. Since April of 2009,
record low rates have helped more than 7.1 million homeowners
to refi nance, resulting in more stable home prices and $12.7
billion in total borrower savings.
• As expected with the expiration of the Homebuyer Tax
Credit, new and existing home sales remained below
levels seen in the first half of 2010. At the same time, home
prices remained level in the past year after 33 straight months of
decline and homeowners added $95 billion in home equity in the
second quarter.
• More than 3.52 million modification arrangements were
started between April 2009 and the end of August 2010
—nearly triple the number of foreclosure completions
during that time. These included more than 1.3 million trial
Home Affordable Modifi cation Program (HAMP) modifi cation
starts, more than 510,000 Federal Housing Administration (FHA)
loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, and more
than 1.6 million proprietary modifi cations under HOPE Now.
While some homeowners may have received help from more than
one program, the number of agreements offered nearly tripled
foreclosure completions for the same period (1.3 million).
• At nine months, almost 90 percent of homeowners
remain in their permanent HAMP modification, with 11
percent defaulted. Early data indicate that HAMP permanent
modifi cations are performing well over time, with lower
delinquency rates than those reported by the industry at large.
At nine months, less than 16 percent of permanent modifi cations
are 60+ days delinquent. To view the September HAMP Servicer
Performance Report, visit: http://www.fi nancialstability.gov/
docs/Sept%20MHA%20Public%202010.pdf
Data in the scorecard also show that the recovery in the housing
market continues to remain fragile, for example, foreclosure
completions continue to move upward and a large supply of homes
are being held off the market. While the recovery will take place over
time, the Administration remains committed to its efforts to prevent
avoidable foreclosures and stabilize the housing market.
The impact of recent new and expanded resources is expected to
contribute to progress captured in future Housing Scorecards. For
example, in July the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced
a short refi nance option targeted to help people who owe more on
their mortgage than their home is worth because their local markets
saw large declines in home values. The option will allow certain
underwater non-FHA borrowers – those current on their existing
mortgage and whose lenders agree to write off at least 10 percent of
the unpaid principal balance of the fi rst mortgage – the opportunity to
qualify for a new FHA-insured mortgage.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development and Research
e Obama Administration’s E orts
To Stabilize e Housing Market
and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
House Prices Show Signs Of Stabilizing
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U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Mortgage Aid Has Been Extended More an 3 Million Times,
Outpacing Foreclosures
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U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Homeowners Save From Reduced Mortgage Payments
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FHA Supports Mortgage Lending During Crisis
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Housing Counselors Serve Millions Of Families
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U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
October 2010
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEET
Indicator is Period Last Period Year Ago As of Dec 2008 Latest Release
Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent) 4.21 4.19 5.00 5.10 21-Oct-10
Housing Affordability (index) 168.3 162.2 161.9 166.3 August-10
Home Prices (indices)
Case Shiller (NSA)
FHFA (SA)
148.9
192.4
148.0
193.4
144.3
198.9
150.5
198.9
July-10
July-10
Home Sales (thousands, SA)
New
Existing
First Time Buyers
24.0
344.2
173.0 (p)
24.0
320.0
161.7
33.8
425.0
215.6
31.4
395.0
174.8
August-10
August-10
August-10
Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply (months)
New Homes for Sale (thousands, SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (months,SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market (thousands)
3,982
11.6
206
8.6
3,743
4,007
12.5
209
8.7
3,628
3,924
9.2
262
7.8
3,501
3,700
9.4
353
11.2
3,508
August-10
August-10
August-10
August-10
2nd Q 10
Mortgage Originations (thousands)
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
1,132.7
925.0
1,050.9
614.7
1,941.0
992.4 (r)
767.2
986.4
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
FHA Originations (thousands)
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyers
47.4
63.5
44.5
(p)
(p)
(p)
51.7
67.2
44.9
(r)
(r)
(r)
60.6
103.4
84.6
62.9
72.7
56.2
September-10
September-10
September-10
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
5.2
36.4
12.4
5.2
36.2
12.5
5.8
36.3
14.7
4.4
34.1
14.3
September-10
September-10
August-10
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
1747.0
1974.9
558.0
1,782.3
1,960.6
559.6
1760.7
1964.6
453.0
912.8
1,642.1
333.1
September-10
September-10
August-10
Underwater Borrowers (thousands) 10,971.2 11,276.9 10,155.6 (a) -- 2nd Q 10
Foreclosure Actions (thousands)
Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts)
Notice of Foreclosure Sale
Foreclosure Completions
Short Sales
102.4
142.9
102.1
18.7 (p)
96.5
147.0
95.4
29.1
122.2
133.7
87.8
22.9
121.5
103.0
78.9
13.8
September-10
September-10
September-10
July-10
HOUSING ASSISTANCE AND STABILIZATION PERFORMANCE METRICS
Indicator is Period Last Period Cumulative From Apr 1, 2009 Latest Release
Distressed Homeowners Assisted (thousands)
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifi cations
35.3
27.8
56.4
115.8
26.6
33.3
39.2
120.4
1,369.4
495.9
568.1
1,675.6
September-10
September-10
September-10
August-10
Counseled Borrowers (thousands) 713.5 839.4 4,272 2nd Q 10
Borrower Annual Savings ($ millions)
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
All Refi nances
--
--
--
--
--
--
2,313.3
2,407.5
12,737.3
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
Activities Completed Under NSP (housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance
3,033
1,041
1,147
2,537
667
1,094
9,249 [36,292]
2,987 [8,252]
3,768 [18,000]
(b)
(b)
(b)
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
2nd Q 10
Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions) 95.4 201.1 1,020.3 2nd Q 10
SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, p = preliminary, a = adjusted for methodology change, r = revised, b = brackets include units in process.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
A. Items in Tables
Description Frequency Sources Notes on Methodology
Distressed Homeowners Assisted
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions
HOPE Now Modifi cations
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
Treasury
Treasury
HUD
Hope Now Alliance
As reported.
As reported.
All FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions.
All proprietary modifi cations completed.
Counseled Borrowers (thousands) Quarterly HUD Housing counseling activity reported by all HUD-approved housing counselors.
Borrower Annual Savings
HAMP Trial Modifi cations
HAMP Permanent Modifi cations
All Refi nances
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
HUD, Treasury, and Freddie Mac
HUD and Treasury
HUD, and MBA
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP trial modifi cations
and Freddie Mac monthly savings estimates.
HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP permanent
modifi cations and median monthly savings estimates.
Refi nance originations (see below) multiplied by HUD estimate of annualized savings per refi nance.
Completed Activities Under NSP (housing units)
New Construction or Residential Rehab
Demolition or Clearance
Direct Homeownership Assistance
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
HUD
HUD
HUD
Housing units constructed/rehabilitated using Neighborhood Stabilization Program.
Bracketed numbers include units in process, to be completed by 3/2013.
Housing units demolished/cleared using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed
numbers as above.
Completed downpayment assistance or non-amortizing second mortgages by grantee to
make purchase of NSP unit affordable. Bracketed numbers as above.
Change in Aggregate Home Equity Quarterly Federal Reserve Board Difference in aggregate household owners’ equity in real estate as reported in the Federal
Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period.
Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM) Weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as reported for 30-Year fi xed rate mortgages (FRM).
Housing Affordability Monthly National Association of Realtors ® NAR’s composite housing affordability index as reported. A value of 100 means that a
family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a
median-priced home. An index above 100 signifi es that family earning the median income
has more than enough income to qualify.
Home Prices
Case-Shiller (NSA)
FHFA (SA)
Monthy
Monthy
Standard and Poor’s
Federal Housing Finance Agency
Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s
recommends use of not seasonally adjusted index when making monthly comparisons.
FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US, January 1991 = 100.
Home Sales (SA)
New
Existing
First Time Buyers
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
HUD and Census Bureau
National Association of Realtors ®
NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. A newly constructed house is considered
sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs
before construction has actually started.
Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. Existing-home sales, which include singlefamily,
townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs
from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on
contracts or the acceptance of a deposit.
Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National
Association of Realtors ® annual estimate of fi rst time buyer share of existing home sales.
Housing Supply
Existing Homes for Sale (NSA)
Existing Homes - Months’ Supply
New Homes for Sale (SA)
New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (SA)
Vacant Units Held Off Market
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Quarterly
National Association of Realtors ®
National Association of Realtors ®
HUD and Census Bureau
HUD and Census Bureau
Census Bureau
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
As reported.
Mortgage Originations
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Quarterly
Quarterly
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
Mortgage Bankers Association
and HUD
HUD estimate of refi nance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refi ance
originations.
HUD estimate of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of
home purchase originations.
FHA Originations
Refi nance Originations
Purchase Originations
Purchases by First Time Buyers
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
HUD
HUD
HUD
FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward
due to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary.
Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA)
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Monthy
Monthy
Monthy
LPS-McDash Analytics
LPS-McDash Analytics
HUD
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced.
Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force.
Seriously Delinquent Mortgages
Prime
Subprime
FHA
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
LPS-McDash, MBA, and HUD
LPS-McDash, MBA, and HUD
HUD
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market.
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure.
Underwater Borrowers Quarterly First American CoreLogic As reported. Due to change in reporting methodology, underwater borrower estimates prior to
the third quarter of 2009 are adjusted to be compatible with current estimates.
Foreclosure Actions
Notice of Default (Foreclosure Starts)
Notice of Foreclosure Sale
Foreclosure Completions
Short sales
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Monthly
Realty Trac
Realty Trac
Realty Trac
Core Logic
Reported counts of notice of default plus lis pendens. Some foreclosure starts may be omitted in
states where the fi ling of a notice of default is optional.
Notice of sale (auctions).
Real Estate Owned (REO).
Count of Short Sales for the month as reported.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
B. Notes on Charts.
1. Monthly house price trends shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price set equal to the median price of an existing
home sold in January 2003 as reported by the National Association of Realtors. Indices shown: S&P/Case Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January
2000 = 100, and FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US (SA), January 1991 = 100.
2. S&P/Case-Shiller 20 metro composite index (NSA) as reported monthly. Futures index fi gures report forward expectations of the level of the S&P/Case Shiller
index as of the date indicated, estimated from prices of futures contracts reported by Radar Logic.
3. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales divided by 12.
4. HUD estimate of refi nance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of refi nance originations.
5. Cumulative HAMP modifi cations started, FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, plus proprietary modifi cations completed as reported by
Hope Now Alliance. Some homeowners may be counted in more than one category. Foreclosure completions are properties entering Real Estate Owned
(REO) as reported by Realty Trac.
6. Foreclosure starts include notice of default and lis pendens, completions are properties entering REO. Both as reported by Realty Trac. See “Foreclosure
Actions” above.
7. See “Borrower Annual Savings” above.
8. FHA market shares as FHA purchase and refi nance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and refi nance mortgage originations as noted in
“Mortgage Originations” above.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Policy Development e Obama Administration’s E orts To Stabilize e Housing Market and Help American H aondm Reeoswenarecrhs
October 2010
U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development
U.S. Department of the Treasury
The Administration has taken a broad set of actions to stabilize the housing market and help American
homeowners. A year ago, stress in the fi nancial system had severely reduced the supply of mortgage credit,
limiting the ability of Americans to buy homes or refi nance mortgages. Millions of responsible families who
had made their monthly payments and had fulfi lled their obligations saw their property values fall. They also
found themselves unable to refi nance at lower mortgage rates.
In February 2009, less than one month after taking offi ce, President Obama announced the Homeowner
Affordability and Stability Plan. As part of this plan and through other housing initiatives, the Administration
has taken the following actions to strengthen the housing market:
• Supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure continued access to affordable mortgage credit;
• The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury purchased more than $1.4 trillion in agency mortgage
backed securities through independent MBS purchase programs, helping to keep mortgage rates at
historic lows;
• Launched a modifi cation initiative to help homeowners reduce mortgage payments to affordable levels
and to prevent avoidable foreclosures;
• Launched a $23.5 billion Housing Finance Agencies Initiative to increase sustainable homeownership
and rental resources;
• Supported the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which has helped 2.5 million American families
purchase homes;
• Provided more than $5 billion in support for affordable rental housing through low income housing tax
credit programs and $6.92 billion in support for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to restore
neighborhoods hardest hit by the concentrated foreclosures;
• Created the $4.1 billion HFA Hardest Hit Fund for innovative foreclosure prevention programs in the
nation’s hardest hit housing markets.
• Supported home purchase and refi nance activity through the FHA to provide access to affordable
mortgage capital and help homeowners prevent foreclosures.
###
Appendix
Sunday, November 07, 2010
Sunday, October 31, 2010
The Foreclosure Process in North Carolina
How the foreclosure process works in N.C.
By Christine Rexrode
crexrode@charlotteobserver.com
Posted: Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010
If you're afraid that you're about to fall behind on your mortgage, you should contact your bank as soon as possible to try to work out a new payment plan. You should also talk to a HUD-approved counselor, even if the bank has already started foreclosure proceedings against you. You should be able to negotiate with your bank up until the final sale date. See www.ncforeclosurehelp.org for more information.
A house doesn't go into foreclosure as soon as a borrower misses a payment. It can take months or even years from the time that the borrower first defaults until the house is actually repossessed and the borrower is required to leave.
North Carolina's Administrative Office of the Courts calculates there were nearly 53,000 foreclosures started in the state through the end of September, but not all of those will end in actual foreclosure sales or repossessions. The N.C. Commissioner of Banks' office estimates that about half of the foreclosure starts in North Carolina actually become foreclosure sales.
Here's how the foreclosure process works in North Carolina.
STEP 1
The borrower defaults on his mortgage payment, and the bank starts sending letters threatening foreclosure action. Typically, the bank waits about 90 days before referring the case to the trustee. The trustee is a person, usually a lawyer, who is supposed to be an impartial party who makes sure that everyone in the foreclosure process is notified correctly.
STEP 2
The trustee notifies the borrower that he is going to file foreclosure papers, then files at the county courthouse and gives the homeowner notice that there will be a hearing at the Clerk of Court's office.
STEP 3
At the hearing, the trustee must prove that there is a debt, that the borrower is in default, that the mortgage agreement gives the bank the right to foreclose, and that the homeowner has been properly notified. The borrower can appeal if he can show that the trustee can't prove one of these facts.
(If the homeowner has some other line of defense - for example, he might say that the bank hired debt collectors who harassed him - then he has to file a separate lawsuit and get an injunction to stop the foreclosure filing from moving forward in the Clerk of Court's office.)
North Carolina law also requires the bank to show that it has tried to resolve the delinquent loan without resorting to foreclosure; usually, this means it has to show that it tried to work out a mortgage modification with the borrower. The clerk can grant an extension of up to 60 days if she believes that a mortgage modification could probably be worked out.
STEP 4
If the clerk allows the foreclosure to move forward, then the trustee posts a notice of sale at the courthouse and publishes another notice in the newspaper, usually the Mecklenburg Times. The trustee must also notify the homeowner.
STEP 5
The foreclosure sale is conducted by the trustee at the courthouse. In Mecklenburg, the sales happen in a designated area on the first floor. Anybody can bid at the sale. The bank usually bids the amount it is owed, although sometimes it will bid less to try to stir up interest in the property.
STEP 6
The trustee files a report of sale at the courthouse. There is a 10-day "upset bid period" where anyone can place a higher bid, as long as it is at least 5 percent more than the previous bid. The borrower can also file at any time for Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection, which will temporarily stop foreclosure proceedings.
STEP 7
If no upset bids are placed, the trustee files the final sale report and the delinquent borrower must leave the house. If the bank is the new owner, the property is called bank-owned or real-estate-owned. Most people who buy foreclosure properties buy them from the bank, rather than at the courthouse sale.
Sources: Mecklenburg County Clerk of Court’s office, N.C. Commissioner of the Banks’ office, Charlotte attorney G. Martin Hunter, Charlotte attorney Peter J. Underhill
Subscribe to The Charlotte Observer.
Read more: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/10/31/1799908/how-foreclosure-process-works.html#ixzz13wEIGjq1
By Christine Rexrode
crexrode@charlotteobserver.com
Posted: Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010
If you're afraid that you're about to fall behind on your mortgage, you should contact your bank as soon as possible to try to work out a new payment plan. You should also talk to a HUD-approved counselor, even if the bank has already started foreclosure proceedings against you. You should be able to negotiate with your bank up until the final sale date. See www.ncforeclosurehelp.org for more information.
A house doesn't go into foreclosure as soon as a borrower misses a payment. It can take months or even years from the time that the borrower first defaults until the house is actually repossessed and the borrower is required to leave.
North Carolina's Administrative Office of the Courts calculates there were nearly 53,000 foreclosures started in the state through the end of September, but not all of those will end in actual foreclosure sales or repossessions. The N.C. Commissioner of Banks' office estimates that about half of the foreclosure starts in North Carolina actually become foreclosure sales.
Here's how the foreclosure process works in North Carolina.
STEP 1
The borrower defaults on his mortgage payment, and the bank starts sending letters threatening foreclosure action. Typically, the bank waits about 90 days before referring the case to the trustee. The trustee is a person, usually a lawyer, who is supposed to be an impartial party who makes sure that everyone in the foreclosure process is notified correctly.
STEP 2
The trustee notifies the borrower that he is going to file foreclosure papers, then files at the county courthouse and gives the homeowner notice that there will be a hearing at the Clerk of Court's office.
STEP 3
At the hearing, the trustee must prove that there is a debt, that the borrower is in default, that the mortgage agreement gives the bank the right to foreclose, and that the homeowner has been properly notified. The borrower can appeal if he can show that the trustee can't prove one of these facts.
(If the homeowner has some other line of defense - for example, he might say that the bank hired debt collectors who harassed him - then he has to file a separate lawsuit and get an injunction to stop the foreclosure filing from moving forward in the Clerk of Court's office.)
North Carolina law also requires the bank to show that it has tried to resolve the delinquent loan without resorting to foreclosure; usually, this means it has to show that it tried to work out a mortgage modification with the borrower. The clerk can grant an extension of up to 60 days if she believes that a mortgage modification could probably be worked out.
STEP 4
If the clerk allows the foreclosure to move forward, then the trustee posts a notice of sale at the courthouse and publishes another notice in the newspaper, usually the Mecklenburg Times. The trustee must also notify the homeowner.
STEP 5
The foreclosure sale is conducted by the trustee at the courthouse. In Mecklenburg, the sales happen in a designated area on the first floor. Anybody can bid at the sale. The bank usually bids the amount it is owed, although sometimes it will bid less to try to stir up interest in the property.
STEP 6
The trustee files a report of sale at the courthouse. There is a 10-day "upset bid period" where anyone can place a higher bid, as long as it is at least 5 percent more than the previous bid. The borrower can also file at any time for Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection, which will temporarily stop foreclosure proceedings.
STEP 7
If no upset bids are placed, the trustee files the final sale report and the delinquent borrower must leave the house. If the bank is the new owner, the property is called bank-owned or real-estate-owned. Most people who buy foreclosure properties buy them from the bank, rather than at the courthouse sale.
Sources: Mecklenburg County Clerk of Court’s office, N.C. Commissioner of the Banks’ office, Charlotte attorney G. Martin Hunter, Charlotte attorney Peter J. Underhill
Subscribe to The Charlotte Observer.
Read more: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/10/31/1799908/how-foreclosure-process-works.html#ixzz13wEIGjq1
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Home sales in selected areas of New Bern
Neuse Harbour
Active homes for sale by price range
Current number of homes on the market=12
Pending sales=0
Active homes for sale by price range
$240,000-$300,000=6
$,300,000-$400,000=3
$400,000-$439,000=2
$1,250,000=1
There were 6 homes that sold and closed in Neuse Harbour in the last 6 months. The most expensive was $250,000
Stately Pines
Current homes on the market=6
Pending sales=1
Active homes for sale by price range
$181,900-$200,000=4
$200,000-$288,000=1
$799,000=1
There were 7 homes that sold and closed in Stately Pines in the last 6 months. The most expensive house sold was $262,500.
Carolina Pines
Current homes on the market=22
Pending sales=1
Active homes for sale by price range
$107,000-$150,000=5
$151,000-$200,000=8
$201,000-$256,000=9
There were 17 homes that sold and closed in Carolina Pines in the last 6 months. The highest priced home sold was $249,000.
Tucker Creek
Current homes on the market=6
Pending sales=2
Active homes for sale by price range
$119,900-180,000=4
$269,000-$299,000=2
There were 9 homes that sold and closed in Tucker Creek in the last 6 months. The highest priced home sold was $270,000.
Feel free to call or email me if you would like to have a customized absorption rate or a Comparable Market Analysis for your property.
Currently mortgage interest rates are low which is great news for buyers. 30 year mortgages are being quoted at 4.21% and 15 year mortgages are 3.64%.
1002 homes were sold in our entire MLS system from Jan.1 2010 thru Oct.23, 2010. Of these 226 were new construction.
982 homes were sold in our entire MLS system from Jan.1 2009 thru Sept.15, 2009. Of these 268 were new construction.
Craven County News
As an elected official I serve at the pleasure of the public. If I can be of service to you on any local government issue please don’t hesitate to email me. And if you have an issue that pertains to the state government and are having trouble get a response from the state I am always willing to try to help.
Any suggestions to make this article better would be welcomed. I can be reached at SteveTyson@NCmove.com And remember you can always visit me online at www.NewBern-NC.Info
Realtor Steve Tyson
The Tyson Group Realtors
Active homes for sale by price range
Current number of homes on the market=12
Pending sales=0
Active homes for sale by price range
$240,000-$300,000=6
$,300,000-$400,000=3
$400,000-$439,000=2
$1,250,000=1
There were 6 homes that sold and closed in Neuse Harbour in the last 6 months. The most expensive was $250,000
Stately Pines
Current homes on the market=6
Pending sales=1
Active homes for sale by price range
$181,900-$200,000=4
$200,000-$288,000=1
$799,000=1
There were 7 homes that sold and closed in Stately Pines in the last 6 months. The most expensive house sold was $262,500.
Carolina Pines
Current homes on the market=22
Pending sales=1
Active homes for sale by price range
$107,000-$150,000=5
$151,000-$200,000=8
$201,000-$256,000=9
There were 17 homes that sold and closed in Carolina Pines in the last 6 months. The highest priced home sold was $249,000.
Tucker Creek
Current homes on the market=6
Pending sales=2
Active homes for sale by price range
$119,900-180,000=4
$269,000-$299,000=2
There were 9 homes that sold and closed in Tucker Creek in the last 6 months. The highest priced home sold was $270,000.
Feel free to call or email me if you would like to have a customized absorption rate or a Comparable Market Analysis for your property.
Currently mortgage interest rates are low which is great news for buyers. 30 year mortgages are being quoted at 4.21% and 15 year mortgages are 3.64%.
1002 homes were sold in our entire MLS system from Jan.1 2010 thru Oct.23, 2010. Of these 226 were new construction.
982 homes were sold in our entire MLS system from Jan.1 2009 thru Sept.15, 2009. Of these 268 were new construction.
Craven County News
As an elected official I serve at the pleasure of the public. If I can be of service to you on any local government issue please don’t hesitate to email me. And if you have an issue that pertains to the state government and are having trouble get a response from the state I am always willing to try to help.
Any suggestions to make this article better would be welcomed. I can be reached at SteveTyson@NCmove.com And remember you can always visit me online at www.NewBern-NC.Info
Realtor Steve Tyson
The Tyson Group Realtors
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Wrong again
Nation's Building News
The Official Online Newspaper of NAHB
FONT SIZE: A A AHousing Forum
Once Again, the Housing Naysayers Have Got It Wrong
By Jason Forrest
The naysayers and pessimists are out in full force with their doomsday proclamations that homes are no longer a solid investment.
The New York Times printed this headline in August: "Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say." And the September issue of Time magazine has the cover story, “Rethinking Homeownership: Why Owning a Home May No Longer Make Economic Sense.”
People have been reading these articles and thinking that they shouldn’t buy a home, but historically, booms always follow busts and demand eventually catches up with supply. Add the basic human need for shelter and the United States is in position for the inevitable — another housing boom.
It’s not the first time we’ve seen dismal predictions from credible sources such as The New York Times and Time magazine. Here are a few others:
■“The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.” — Time
■“If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore.” — The Miami Herald
■“Most economists agree a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was.” — Money
■“We’re starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money-making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot.” — Los Angeles Times
■“Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment.” — Kiplinger’s Personal Finance Magazine
But wait, I forgot to mention the dates. Each of the above quotes was printed between 1947 and 1993. And following each, the markets recovered and eventually boomed. That means they were all wrong. Demand caught up with supply and the economy improved.
Those last two quotes came from 1993, a low point for real estate values in Los Angeles. Median prices in L.A. reached $222,200 at their peak in 1990, and dropped to $178,300 in 1998. Selling during the bust would have cost home owners more than 20%. I’d be willing to bet that more than a few people heeded the advice not to buy a home in the L.A. area and then missed out on one of the biggest housing booms in history. As usual though, prices rose in the long term, with median values reaching $533,200 in 2005. In 2010, median prices in L.A. are at $345,000, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting's August 2010 report, which still represents a gain of more than 55% from 1990.
Los Angeles is not alone. The median home price in Austin, Texas, reached $109,000 in 1988. Two years later, median prices had fallen 28.5%, to $81,200. Median home prices in Austin today have reached $202,800, according to Burns, more than an 86% increase since 1988. Similar trends have occurred in San Francisco, Phoenix, Denver, Honolulu and other markets.
(In his article, “Housing Is Good as Gold,” Paul Cardis, founder and CEO of AVID Ratings, includes a graph highlighting national boom and bust cycles in the last 49 years.)
Warren Buffett says, “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” That means that the time to buy is when the masses are freaked out and prices are low.
History repeats itself. Land has been king for thousands of years — starting with Solomon and going all the way through Warren Buffett, who has recently taken on top economists himself by ruling out a double-dip recession.
My dad taught me that if you want to be the best at something, you should copy what the best do. So if you want to be wealthy and successful, you copy the top 10%. As one of the world’s richest people, Warren Buffett’s strategy seems to be working out all right for him.
Investors are buying land while it’s cheap to eventually make a profit on the re-sale, and they now make up 60% of the buyers, said Jeff Frieden, CEO of REDC, in July’s Investor’s Business Daily.
In the recent New York Times article cited above, Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate site Zillow, said “housing values will only keep up with inflation. A home will return the money an owner puts in each month, but will not multiply the investment.” He’s wrong — demand will catch up with the surplus housing inventory and then outweigh the supply.
We have yet to figure out a way to produce more land, but people still need places to live. Plus, the population is growing. More than 4.3 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2007, and they will be looking for homes sometime in the late 2020s. The Census also estimates an average 888,000 immigrants entering the country annually and projects a U.S. population of 392 million by 2050, more than a 50% increase in size from 1990.
Housing opportunities will also continue to arise from people entering new stages of their lives. The Census counted more than 54.5 million Americans between the ages of 50 and 64 in 2008. Approaching retirement, many of these folks will downsize or move to active adult communities like The Villages in Florida, the largest, most successful retirement community in the nation.
Growing families will want more space; newlyweds (there were almost 2.2 million of them in 2008) will need homes and workers will be moving in response to new jobs, job relocations or raises. Add those entering the workforce from high school and college, and demand is bottling up, positioning the U.S. for another housing boom.
Beyond the historical elements and the logic of supply versus demand, people are driven to buy homes for emotional reasons. Psychologists say that buying a home is the third most emotional thing people go through, following birth and marriage. Shelter is a basic human need; in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs it is right up there with food, air and sleep. But buying a home is also an important step in improving your life. It can mean a better school district or a less stressful marriage and it’s at the core of the American dream. Homes are a sound financial investment, but if that alone doesn’t motivate people to buy, their emotions will.
People are bound to panic during busts, giving in to their fears and market anxiety. Even so, as always, housing remains a solid investment. Demand will catch up with the supply; historically, booms always follow busts; and people are emotional beings who will do whatever it takes to provide for their families.
Jason Forrest is a new home sales trainer and author of “Creating Urgency in a Non-Urgent Housing Market” and “40 Day Sales Dare.” Contact information is on his website: www.jasonforrestspeaker.com.
The Official Online Newspaper of NAHB
FONT SIZE: A A AHousing Forum
Once Again, the Housing Naysayers Have Got It Wrong
By Jason Forrest
The naysayers and pessimists are out in full force with their doomsday proclamations that homes are no longer a solid investment.
The New York Times printed this headline in August: "Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say." And the September issue of Time magazine has the cover story, “Rethinking Homeownership: Why Owning a Home May No Longer Make Economic Sense.”
People have been reading these articles and thinking that they shouldn’t buy a home, but historically, booms always follow busts and demand eventually catches up with supply. Add the basic human need for shelter and the United States is in position for the inevitable — another housing boom.
It’s not the first time we’ve seen dismal predictions from credible sources such as The New York Times and Time magazine. Here are a few others:
■“The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.” — Time
■“If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore.” — The Miami Herald
■“Most economists agree a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was.” — Money
■“We’re starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money-making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot.” — Los Angeles Times
■“Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment.” — Kiplinger’s Personal Finance Magazine
But wait, I forgot to mention the dates. Each of the above quotes was printed between 1947 and 1993. And following each, the markets recovered and eventually boomed. That means they were all wrong. Demand caught up with supply and the economy improved.
Those last two quotes came from 1993, a low point for real estate values in Los Angeles. Median prices in L.A. reached $222,200 at their peak in 1990, and dropped to $178,300 in 1998. Selling during the bust would have cost home owners more than 20%. I’d be willing to bet that more than a few people heeded the advice not to buy a home in the L.A. area and then missed out on one of the biggest housing booms in history. As usual though, prices rose in the long term, with median values reaching $533,200 in 2005. In 2010, median prices in L.A. are at $345,000, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting's August 2010 report, which still represents a gain of more than 55% from 1990.
Los Angeles is not alone. The median home price in Austin, Texas, reached $109,000 in 1988. Two years later, median prices had fallen 28.5%, to $81,200. Median home prices in Austin today have reached $202,800, according to Burns, more than an 86% increase since 1988. Similar trends have occurred in San Francisco, Phoenix, Denver, Honolulu and other markets.
(In his article, “Housing Is Good as Gold,” Paul Cardis, founder and CEO of AVID Ratings, includes a graph highlighting national boom and bust cycles in the last 49 years.)
Warren Buffett says, “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” That means that the time to buy is when the masses are freaked out and prices are low.
History repeats itself. Land has been king for thousands of years — starting with Solomon and going all the way through Warren Buffett, who has recently taken on top economists himself by ruling out a double-dip recession.
My dad taught me that if you want to be the best at something, you should copy what the best do. So if you want to be wealthy and successful, you copy the top 10%. As one of the world’s richest people, Warren Buffett’s strategy seems to be working out all right for him.
Investors are buying land while it’s cheap to eventually make a profit on the re-sale, and they now make up 60% of the buyers, said Jeff Frieden, CEO of REDC, in July’s Investor’s Business Daily.
In the recent New York Times article cited above, Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate site Zillow, said “housing values will only keep up with inflation. A home will return the money an owner puts in each month, but will not multiply the investment.” He’s wrong — demand will catch up with the surplus housing inventory and then outweigh the supply.
We have yet to figure out a way to produce more land, but people still need places to live. Plus, the population is growing. More than 4.3 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2007, and they will be looking for homes sometime in the late 2020s. The Census also estimates an average 888,000 immigrants entering the country annually and projects a U.S. population of 392 million by 2050, more than a 50% increase in size from 1990.
Housing opportunities will also continue to arise from people entering new stages of their lives. The Census counted more than 54.5 million Americans between the ages of 50 and 64 in 2008. Approaching retirement, many of these folks will downsize or move to active adult communities like The Villages in Florida, the largest, most successful retirement community in the nation.
Growing families will want more space; newlyweds (there were almost 2.2 million of them in 2008) will need homes and workers will be moving in response to new jobs, job relocations or raises. Add those entering the workforce from high school and college, and demand is bottling up, positioning the U.S. for another housing boom.
Beyond the historical elements and the logic of supply versus demand, people are driven to buy homes for emotional reasons. Psychologists say that buying a home is the third most emotional thing people go through, following birth and marriage. Shelter is a basic human need; in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs it is right up there with food, air and sleep. But buying a home is also an important step in improving your life. It can mean a better school district or a less stressful marriage and it’s at the core of the American dream. Homes are a sound financial investment, but if that alone doesn’t motivate people to buy, their emotions will.
People are bound to panic during busts, giving in to their fears and market anxiety. Even so, as always, housing remains a solid investment. Demand will catch up with the supply; historically, booms always follow busts; and people are emotional beings who will do whatever it takes to provide for their families.
Jason Forrest is a new home sales trainer and author of “Creating Urgency in a Non-Urgent Housing Market” and “40 Day Sales Dare.” Contact information is on his website: www.jasonforrestspeaker.com.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Reason to buy a home in New Bern today
Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.
Sure, maybe there's more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts running covers that declare "Owning a home may no longer make economic sense," it's time to say: Enough is enough. This is what "capitulation" looks like. Everyone has given up.
The Sept. 6 cover of Time magazine: This is what capitulation looks like.
.After all, at the peak of the bubble five years ago, Time had a different take. "Home Sweet Home," declared its cover then, as it celebrated the boom and asked: "Will your house make you rich?"
But it's not enough just to be contrarian. So here are 10 reasons why it's good to buy a home.
1. You can get a good deal. Especially if you play hardball. This is a buyer's market. Most of the other buyers have now vanished, as the tax credits on purchases have just expired. We're four to five years into the biggest housing bust in modern history. And prices have come down a long way– about 30% from their peak, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, which tracks home prices in 20 big cities. Yes, it's mixed. New York is only down 20%. Arizona has halved. Will prices fall further? Sure, they could. You'll never catch the bottom. It doesn't really matter so much in the long haul.
Where is fair value? Fund manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, who predicted the bust with remarkable accuracy, said two years ago that home prices needed to fall another 17% to reach fair value in relation to household incomes. Case-Shiller since then: Down 18%.
Brett Arends discusses why he thinks now is a particularly good time to buy a home.
.2. Mortgages are cheap. You can get a 30-year loan for around 4.3%. What's not to like? These are the lowest rates on record. As recently as two years ago they were about 6.3%. That drop slashes your monthly repayment by a fifth. If inflation picks up, you won't see these mortgage rates again in your lifetime. And if we get deflation, and rates fall further, you can refi.
3. You'll save on taxes. You can deduct the mortgage interest from your income taxes. You can deduct your real estate taxes. And you'll get a tax break on capital gains–if any–when you sell. Sure, you'll need to do your math. You'll only get the income tax break if you itemize your deductions, and many people may be better off taking the standard deduction instead. The breaks are more valuable the more you earn, and the bigger your mortgage. But many people will find that these tax breaks mean owning costs them less, often a lot less, than renting.
The June 13, 2005 cover of Time.
.4. It'll be yours. You can have the kitchen and bathrooms you want. You can move the walls, build an extension–zoning permitted–or paint everything bright orange. Few landlords are so indulgent; for renters, these types of changes are often impossible. You'll feel better about your own place if you own it than if you rent. Many years ago, when I was working for a political campaign in England, I toured a working-class northern town. Mrs. Thatcher had just begun selling off public housing to the tenants. "You can tell the ones that have been bought," said my local guide. "They've painted the front door. It's the first thing people do when they buy." It was a small sign that said something big.
More on the Developments Blog
Buying a Home, Good Idea?
With Little to Do, Home Builders Focus on Quality
In Monaco, the 'Most Expensive' Home
House of the Day: Private Maine Island
.5. You'll get a better home. In many parts of the country it can be really hard to find a good rental. All the best places are sold as condos. Money talks. Once again, this is a case by case issue: In Miami right now there are so many vacant luxury condos that owners will rent them out for a fraction of the cost of owning. But few places are so favored. Generally speaking, if you want the best home in the best neighborhood, you're better off buying.
6. It offers some inflation protection. No, it's not perfect. But studies by Professor Karl "Chip" Case (of Case-Shiller), and others, suggest that over the long-term housing has tended to beat inflation by a couple of percentage points a year. That's valuable inflation insurance, especially if you're young and raising a family and thinking about the next 30 or 40 years. In the recent past, inflation-protected government bonds, or TIPS, offered an easier form of inflation insurance. But yields there have plummeted of late. That also makes homeownership look a little better by contrast.
View Full Image
Associated Press
A house for sale in Shelby, Ohio.
.7. It's risk capital. No, your home isn't the stock market and you shouldn't view it as the way to get rich. But if the economy does surprise us all and start booming, sooner or later real estate prices will head up again, too. One lesson from the last few years is that stocks are incredibly hard for most normal people to own in large quantities–for practical as well as psychological reasons. Equity in a home is another way of linking part of your portfolio to the long-term growth of the economy–if it happens–and still managing to sleep at night.
8. It's forced savings. If you can rent an apartment for $2,000 month instead of buying one for $2,400 a month, renting may make sense. But will you save that $400 for your future? A lot of people won't. Most, I dare say. Once again, you have to do your math, but the part of your mortgage payment that goes to principal repayment isn't a cost. You're just paying yourself by building equity. As a forced monthly saving, it's a good discipline.
9. There is a lot to choose from. There is a glut of homes in most of the country. The National Association of Realtors puts the current inventory at around 4 million homes. That's below last year's peak, but well above typical levels, and enough for about a year's worth of sales. More keeping coming onto the market, too, as the banks slowly unload their inventory of unsold properties. That means great choice, as well as great prices.
10. Sooner or later, the market will clear. Demand and supply will meet. The population is forecast to grow by more than 100 million people over the next 40 years. That means maybe 40 million new households looking for homes. Meanwhile, this housing glut will work itself out. Many of the homes will be bought. But many more will simply be destroyed–either deliberately, or by inaction. This is already happening. Even two years ago, when I toured the housing slump in western Florida, I saw bankrupt condo developments that were fast becoming derelict. And, finally, a lot of the "glut" simply won't matter: It's concentrated in a few areas, like Florida and Nevada. Unless you live there, the glut won't have any long-term impact on housing supply in your town.
Sure, maybe there's more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts running covers that declare "Owning a home may no longer make economic sense," it's time to say: Enough is enough. This is what "capitulation" looks like. Everyone has given up.
The Sept. 6 cover of Time magazine: This is what capitulation looks like.
.After all, at the peak of the bubble five years ago, Time had a different take. "Home Sweet Home," declared its cover then, as it celebrated the boom and asked: "Will your house make you rich?"
But it's not enough just to be contrarian. So here are 10 reasons why it's good to buy a home.
1. You can get a good deal. Especially if you play hardball. This is a buyer's market. Most of the other buyers have now vanished, as the tax credits on purchases have just expired. We're four to five years into the biggest housing bust in modern history. And prices have come down a long way– about 30% from their peak, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, which tracks home prices in 20 big cities. Yes, it's mixed. New York is only down 20%. Arizona has halved. Will prices fall further? Sure, they could. You'll never catch the bottom. It doesn't really matter so much in the long haul.
Where is fair value? Fund manager Jeremy Grantham at GMO, who predicted the bust with remarkable accuracy, said two years ago that home prices needed to fall another 17% to reach fair value in relation to household incomes. Case-Shiller since then: Down 18%.
Brett Arends discusses why he thinks now is a particularly good time to buy a home.
.2. Mortgages are cheap. You can get a 30-year loan for around 4.3%. What's not to like? These are the lowest rates on record. As recently as two years ago they were about 6.3%. That drop slashes your monthly repayment by a fifth. If inflation picks up, you won't see these mortgage rates again in your lifetime. And if we get deflation, and rates fall further, you can refi.
3. You'll save on taxes. You can deduct the mortgage interest from your income taxes. You can deduct your real estate taxes. And you'll get a tax break on capital gains–if any–when you sell. Sure, you'll need to do your math. You'll only get the income tax break if you itemize your deductions, and many people may be better off taking the standard deduction instead. The breaks are more valuable the more you earn, and the bigger your mortgage. But many people will find that these tax breaks mean owning costs them less, often a lot less, than renting.
The June 13, 2005 cover of Time.
.4. It'll be yours. You can have the kitchen and bathrooms you want. You can move the walls, build an extension–zoning permitted–or paint everything bright orange. Few landlords are so indulgent; for renters, these types of changes are often impossible. You'll feel better about your own place if you own it than if you rent. Many years ago, when I was working for a political campaign in England, I toured a working-class northern town. Mrs. Thatcher had just begun selling off public housing to the tenants. "You can tell the ones that have been bought," said my local guide. "They've painted the front door. It's the first thing people do when they buy." It was a small sign that said something big.
More on the Developments Blog
Buying a Home, Good Idea?
With Little to Do, Home Builders Focus on Quality
In Monaco, the 'Most Expensive' Home
House of the Day: Private Maine Island
.5. You'll get a better home. In many parts of the country it can be really hard to find a good rental. All the best places are sold as condos. Money talks. Once again, this is a case by case issue: In Miami right now there are so many vacant luxury condos that owners will rent them out for a fraction of the cost of owning. But few places are so favored. Generally speaking, if you want the best home in the best neighborhood, you're better off buying.
6. It offers some inflation protection. No, it's not perfect. But studies by Professor Karl "Chip" Case (of Case-Shiller), and others, suggest that over the long-term housing has tended to beat inflation by a couple of percentage points a year. That's valuable inflation insurance, especially if you're young and raising a family and thinking about the next 30 or 40 years. In the recent past, inflation-protected government bonds, or TIPS, offered an easier form of inflation insurance. But yields there have plummeted of late. That also makes homeownership look a little better by contrast.
View Full Image
Associated Press
A house for sale in Shelby, Ohio.
.7. It's risk capital. No, your home isn't the stock market and you shouldn't view it as the way to get rich. But if the economy does surprise us all and start booming, sooner or later real estate prices will head up again, too. One lesson from the last few years is that stocks are incredibly hard for most normal people to own in large quantities–for practical as well as psychological reasons. Equity in a home is another way of linking part of your portfolio to the long-term growth of the economy–if it happens–and still managing to sleep at night.
8. It's forced savings. If you can rent an apartment for $2,000 month instead of buying one for $2,400 a month, renting may make sense. But will you save that $400 for your future? A lot of people won't. Most, I dare say. Once again, you have to do your math, but the part of your mortgage payment that goes to principal repayment isn't a cost. You're just paying yourself by building equity. As a forced monthly saving, it's a good discipline.
9. There is a lot to choose from. There is a glut of homes in most of the country. The National Association of Realtors puts the current inventory at around 4 million homes. That's below last year's peak, but well above typical levels, and enough for about a year's worth of sales. More keeping coming onto the market, too, as the banks slowly unload their inventory of unsold properties. That means great choice, as well as great prices.
10. Sooner or later, the market will clear. Demand and supply will meet. The population is forecast to grow by more than 100 million people over the next 40 years. That means maybe 40 million new households looking for homes. Meanwhile, this housing glut will work itself out. Many of the homes will be bought. But many more will simply be destroyed–either deliberately, or by inaction. This is already happening. Even two years ago, when I toured the housing slump in western Florida, I saw bankrupt condo developments that were fast becoming derelict. And, finally, a lot of the "glut" simply won't matter: It's concentrated in a few areas, like Florida and Nevada. Unless you live there, the glut won't have any long-term impact on housing supply in your town.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Sell your home
For Your Clients: 13 Unique Ways to Sell a Home
By Paige Tepping
RISMEDIA, September 16, 2010--In today’s market, it takes more than painting and trimming the bushes to get noticed, to stand out, to make your home memorable. While home sellers across the country are resorting to dropping the price in order to make their home more attractive, it leads to one crucial question: what can I do differently to make my home stand out?
Larry Nusbaum, Resolution Assistance Contractor for the FDIC, offers the following tips for home sellers looking to differentiate their homes from the numerous homes that are on the market today.
1. Get lighted signage that’s illuminated even after dark. This will give prospective buyers extra time to see your home as they don’t have to depend on sunlight.
2. If you or your agent are hosting an open house, be sure to serve light snacks and hand out something that attendees will remember. You want something that will be a positive reminder of your home—seasonal gifts are the perfect way to stay top of mind. Be sure to at least have pens and key chains with your agent's name and contact information on them.
3. Create an informational flyer with all the local conveniences you can find: shopping, schools, universities, hospitals, malls, restaurants, gas stations and attractions in the area, in addition to local police and fire stations, even school bus pick up locations. Assume your open house attendees don’t know the neighborhood.
4. Hand out information pertaining to your home as well as information on the other listed properties in the area showing that your house is the best value.
5. Do some staging to make sure your home looks its best.
6. Be sure to offer incentives. Some examples include a Lowe's gift card, paying for a year’s worth of yard care or a free session with a landscape architect, offering a $1,000 landscape allowance, paying for a years worth of homeowners fees, offering $1,000 for new appliances or any home improvement, offering a new carpet allowance or paying for lawn service for a year—the possibilities are endless.
7. Paint the garage floor (concrete paint). Making the garage look fresh and clean will make the whole house feel newer.
8. Send letters to all the neighbors inviting them to “pick their neighbor,” and be sure to include information about your home and the open house. Give them an incentive to talk about your home with other individuals in their sphere of influence. (i.e. a $200 gift card if they find your buyer).
9. Put up signs in your front yard and be sure to hang up as many directional signs as the neighborhood allows.
10. Put out flyers in surrounding shopping areas.
11. Have your agent create a video of your home and put the virtual tour on the Web.
12. Have your agent post ads on Craigslist and on any other free online listing sites you can find.
13. E-mail HR departments at local companies as many employees prefer to live close to their jobs but don’t make time for the house hunting process. This will make it easy for employees to find your home.
For more tips go to http://www.newbern-nc.info/
By Paige Tepping
RISMEDIA, September 16, 2010--In today’s market, it takes more than painting and trimming the bushes to get noticed, to stand out, to make your home memorable. While home sellers across the country are resorting to dropping the price in order to make their home more attractive, it leads to one crucial question: what can I do differently to make my home stand out?
Larry Nusbaum, Resolution Assistance Contractor for the FDIC, offers the following tips for home sellers looking to differentiate their homes from the numerous homes that are on the market today.
1. Get lighted signage that’s illuminated even after dark. This will give prospective buyers extra time to see your home as they don’t have to depend on sunlight.
2. If you or your agent are hosting an open house, be sure to serve light snacks and hand out something that attendees will remember. You want something that will be a positive reminder of your home—seasonal gifts are the perfect way to stay top of mind. Be sure to at least have pens and key chains with your agent's name and contact information on them.
3. Create an informational flyer with all the local conveniences you can find: shopping, schools, universities, hospitals, malls, restaurants, gas stations and attractions in the area, in addition to local police and fire stations, even school bus pick up locations. Assume your open house attendees don’t know the neighborhood.
4. Hand out information pertaining to your home as well as information on the other listed properties in the area showing that your house is the best value.
5. Do some staging to make sure your home looks its best.
6. Be sure to offer incentives. Some examples include a Lowe's gift card, paying for a year’s worth of yard care or a free session with a landscape architect, offering a $1,000 landscape allowance, paying for a years worth of homeowners fees, offering $1,000 for new appliances or any home improvement, offering a new carpet allowance or paying for lawn service for a year—the possibilities are endless.
7. Paint the garage floor (concrete paint). Making the garage look fresh and clean will make the whole house feel newer.
8. Send letters to all the neighbors inviting them to “pick their neighbor,” and be sure to include information about your home and the open house. Give them an incentive to talk about your home with other individuals in their sphere of influence. (i.e. a $200 gift card if they find your buyer).
9. Put up signs in your front yard and be sure to hang up as many directional signs as the neighborhood allows.
10. Put out flyers in surrounding shopping areas.
11. Have your agent create a video of your home and put the virtual tour on the Web.
12. Have your agent post ads on Craigslist and on any other free online listing sites you can find.
13. E-mail HR departments at local companies as many employees prefer to live close to their jobs but don’t make time for the house hunting process. This will make it easy for employees to find your home.
For more tips go to http://www.newbern-nc.info/
Forclosure News
U.S. home seizures reached a record for the third time in five months in August as lenders completed the foreclosure process for thousands of delinquent owners, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
Bank repossessions climbed 25 percent from a year earlier to 95,364, the most since the Irvine, California-based data provider began keeping records in 2005. Foreclosure filings, including default and auction notices, fell 5 percent to 338,836. One out of every 381 U.S. households received a filing, RealtyTrac said today in a statement.
“We’re on track for a record year for homes in foreclosure and repossessions,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president, said in a telephone interview. “There is no improvement in the underlying economic conditions.”
Foreclosures are contributing to a growing housing supply that may add as many as 12 million homes to the U.S. market. Demand is crumbling amid high unemployment and following the expiration of a federal homebuyer tax credit in April. Sales of new and existing homes fell in July to the lowest level on record. Home prices have fallen 28 percent since 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of values in 20 U.S. cities.
About 2 million houses will be seized by lenders through 2011, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Home sales this year will be 7 percent below the 2009 total, Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage finance company, said yesterday in a report.
Default notices are falling while seizures rise because lenders are trying to control the number of properties that enter the foreclosure process, RealtyTrac said. That doesn’t mean more owners are catching up on their mortgage payments, Sharga said.
‘Serious Price Depreciation’
“If the market is left to fend for itself, you may see more serious price depreciation,” he said. “Whether things fall precipitously depends on government and lenders controlling the inflow of new foreclosure actions.”
The number of homes that received default notices last month was 96,469, down 1 percent from July and 30 percent from a year earlier, RealtyTrac said. A default notice is the first stage of foreclosure. They peaked at 142,064 in April 2009.
A foreclosure auction, the second stage in the process, was scheduled on 147,003 properties, up 9 percent from July and 2 percent from August 2009. The record was 158,105 in March.
Bank seizures rose 3 percent from July and had their ninth straight monthly increase on a year-over-year basis, RealtyTrac said. The August total was 1.7 percent more than the previous record of 93,777 set in May.
Highest in Nevada
Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for the 44th straight month. One in every 84 households got a notice, more than four times the national average. Filings fell 25 percent from a year earlier.
Florida had the second-highest rate, at one in every 155 households, two and a half times the U.S. average. Filings fell 8.9 percent from a year earlier. Arizona ranked third at one in 165 households, and California was fourth at one in 194.
Idaho ranked fifth at one in 220 households, with filings up 8.9 percent from July and 11 percent from a year earlier, RealtyTrac said. Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Illinois and Hawaii also ranked among the 10 highest rates.
Five states accounted for more than half of all U.S. filings, led by California’s 69,143, a fifth of the national total. Filings in the most populous state rose 3 percent from July and declined 25 percent from a year earlier.
Second in Filings
Florida ranked second with 56,877 filings, up 10 percent from July and down 9 percent from a year earlier. Michigan was third at 17,764 filings, followed by Illinois at 16,808 and Arizona at 16,510.
Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Nevada and Washington rounded out the top 10, said RealtyTrac, which sells default data from more than 2,200 counties representing 90 percent of the U.S. population.
As many as 8 million homes that are owned or will be seized by banks have yet to reach the market, according to Oliver Chang, a U.S. housing strategist with Morgan Stanley in San Francisco. Owners of 3.8 million more homes said they are “very likely” to put them up for sale within six months if there is improvement, a survey by Seattle-based Zillow Inc. showed.
Bank repossessions climbed 25 percent from a year earlier to 95,364, the most since the Irvine, California-based data provider began keeping records in 2005. Foreclosure filings, including default and auction notices, fell 5 percent to 338,836. One out of every 381 U.S. households received a filing, RealtyTrac said today in a statement.
“We’re on track for a record year for homes in foreclosure and repossessions,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president, said in a telephone interview. “There is no improvement in the underlying economic conditions.”
Foreclosures are contributing to a growing housing supply that may add as many as 12 million homes to the U.S. market. Demand is crumbling amid high unemployment and following the expiration of a federal homebuyer tax credit in April. Sales of new and existing homes fell in July to the lowest level on record. Home prices have fallen 28 percent since 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of values in 20 U.S. cities.
About 2 million houses will be seized by lenders through 2011, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Home sales this year will be 7 percent below the 2009 total, Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage finance company, said yesterday in a report.
Default notices are falling while seizures rise because lenders are trying to control the number of properties that enter the foreclosure process, RealtyTrac said. That doesn’t mean more owners are catching up on their mortgage payments, Sharga said.
‘Serious Price Depreciation’
“If the market is left to fend for itself, you may see more serious price depreciation,” he said. “Whether things fall precipitously depends on government and lenders controlling the inflow of new foreclosure actions.”
The number of homes that received default notices last month was 96,469, down 1 percent from July and 30 percent from a year earlier, RealtyTrac said. A default notice is the first stage of foreclosure. They peaked at 142,064 in April 2009.
A foreclosure auction, the second stage in the process, was scheduled on 147,003 properties, up 9 percent from July and 2 percent from August 2009. The record was 158,105 in March.
Bank seizures rose 3 percent from July and had their ninth straight monthly increase on a year-over-year basis, RealtyTrac said. The August total was 1.7 percent more than the previous record of 93,777 set in May.
Highest in Nevada
Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for the 44th straight month. One in every 84 households got a notice, more than four times the national average. Filings fell 25 percent from a year earlier.
Florida had the second-highest rate, at one in every 155 households, two and a half times the U.S. average. Filings fell 8.9 percent from a year earlier. Arizona ranked third at one in 165 households, and California was fourth at one in 194.
Idaho ranked fifth at one in 220 households, with filings up 8.9 percent from July and 11 percent from a year earlier, RealtyTrac said. Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Illinois and Hawaii also ranked among the 10 highest rates.
Five states accounted for more than half of all U.S. filings, led by California’s 69,143, a fifth of the national total. Filings in the most populous state rose 3 percent from July and declined 25 percent from a year earlier.
Second in Filings
Florida ranked second with 56,877 filings, up 10 percent from July and down 9 percent from a year earlier. Michigan was third at 17,764 filings, followed by Illinois at 16,808 and Arizona at 16,510.
Georgia, Texas, Ohio, Nevada and Washington rounded out the top 10, said RealtyTrac, which sells default data from more than 2,200 counties representing 90 percent of the U.S. population.
As many as 8 million homes that are owned or will be seized by banks have yet to reach the market, according to Oliver Chang, a U.S. housing strategist with Morgan Stanley in San Francisco. Owners of 3.8 million more homes said they are “very likely” to put them up for sale within six months if there is improvement, a survey by Seattle-based Zillow Inc. showed.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Short sales take time to close
Why do Short Sales Take so Long to Close?
RISMEDIA, September 8, 2010--Real estate professionals know that a short sale transaction can take months for it to be approved and closed.
The reality is that short sales usually take three to four times as much as a regular sale to finally get to the closing. From the time the Realtor actually gets the property under contract to the time the lender approves, it could take anywhere from 30 days to six months, depending on how fast the borrower provides critical information for lender and Investor approval.
Even then, you still have one more variable to account for which is the buyer waiting for all this time to get the contract approved by the lender. For this, setting the expectations is a key factor in any short-sale transaction.
Buyers Expectations
Buyers who make an offer on a short-sale property need to know that lenders have to "reverse underwrite" a short-sale and make sure that they are allowing the sale to happen close to market value. I say "reverse underwrite" because instead of determining affordability, they will look for "un-affordability."
They will check the seller's financials to verify that they can't afford the house anymore and consequently, they will order a price opinion from a broker or certified appraiser, commonly known as BPO (Broker's Price Opinion) to make sure the house is being sold close to market value. If the offer is too low compared to what is owed, it will make more financial sense to the Lender to just foreclose the property and re-sell it as an REO (Bank-Owned Property). All this will happen while the buyer is still waiting for a response so it is very important to set the expectations correctly from the beginning to avoid losing the buyer close to the end of the process.
Seller's Expectations
On the other hand, it is important to also educate the Seller and set the expectations with them from the beginning. They need to understand that the Lender takes its time responding, but when they do, they usually give a 72-hour timeframe to respond or provide the missing documentation. If the documentation is not provided within the specified timeframe, it usually ends up in a closed file and countless work-hours lost. Another common situation that is happening very often is borrowers being served with foreclosure paperwork from either the lender or homeowner's association while the short-sale is being processed. It is crucial to let them know that this might happen so that they are prepared for it and receive the documents knowing that they are in the best hands. Foreclosure and short-sale are parallel processes and one does not cancel the other. Sometimes a short-sale might delay a final sale date, but it will definitely not stop the Lender from starting the foreclosure proceedings.
Closing the Short Sale
Short sale success comes from educating not only the seller but also the buyer and everybody else involved in the transaction. Setting the right expectations is the most crucial part of a short sale. There are many hours involved in processing a short sale and the last thing you want is a seller or buyer walking away because the expectations were not set correctly.
RISMEDIA, September 8, 2010--Real estate professionals know that a short sale transaction can take months for it to be approved and closed.
The reality is that short sales usually take three to four times as much as a regular sale to finally get to the closing. From the time the Realtor actually gets the property under contract to the time the lender approves, it could take anywhere from 30 days to six months, depending on how fast the borrower provides critical information for lender and Investor approval.
Even then, you still have one more variable to account for which is the buyer waiting for all this time to get the contract approved by the lender. For this, setting the expectations is a key factor in any short-sale transaction.
Buyers Expectations
Buyers who make an offer on a short-sale property need to know that lenders have to "reverse underwrite" a short-sale and make sure that they are allowing the sale to happen close to market value. I say "reverse underwrite" because instead of determining affordability, they will look for "un-affordability."
They will check the seller's financials to verify that they can't afford the house anymore and consequently, they will order a price opinion from a broker or certified appraiser, commonly known as BPO (Broker's Price Opinion) to make sure the house is being sold close to market value. If the offer is too low compared to what is owed, it will make more financial sense to the Lender to just foreclose the property and re-sell it as an REO (Bank-Owned Property). All this will happen while the buyer is still waiting for a response so it is very important to set the expectations correctly from the beginning to avoid losing the buyer close to the end of the process.
Seller's Expectations
On the other hand, it is important to also educate the Seller and set the expectations with them from the beginning. They need to understand that the Lender takes its time responding, but when they do, they usually give a 72-hour timeframe to respond or provide the missing documentation. If the documentation is not provided within the specified timeframe, it usually ends up in a closed file and countless work-hours lost. Another common situation that is happening very often is borrowers being served with foreclosure paperwork from either the lender or homeowner's association while the short-sale is being processed. It is crucial to let them know that this might happen so that they are prepared for it and receive the documents knowing that they are in the best hands. Foreclosure and short-sale are parallel processes and one does not cancel the other. Sometimes a short-sale might delay a final sale date, but it will definitely not stop the Lender from starting the foreclosure proceedings.
Closing the Short Sale
Short sale success comes from educating not only the seller but also the buyer and everybody else involved in the transaction. Setting the right expectations is the most crucial part of a short sale. There are many hours involved in processing a short sale and the last thing you want is a seller or buyer walking away because the expectations were not set correctly.
Sunday, September 05, 2010
Mortgages
I'm sure by now, regardless of what lender(s) you've been dealing with lately, you've noticed a profound change in the way loans are being underwritten. If you haven't, you WILL. These massive changes are creating delayed closings, and have caught us all off-guard, INCLUDING the loan officers. Here's why.
As you may already know, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, which are Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), have been under close government scrutiny ever since the housing market began to take a dive. The govt. has been trying to determine if they need to take over control of the two GSEs because of their apparent lack of self-control, or whatever your personal opinion may be. As a result, the two giants have been searching for ways (in my opinion) to offset some of the losses they've incurred over the last year or so.
Very recently, lenders began feverishly stressing the importance of loan quality and making sure every "T" was crossed & every "I" was dotted. The reasons behind this were that Fannie & Freddie had now begun not only scrutinizing the loans they were buying currently, but were going BACK & auditing loans they'd previously bought. You see, when a lender gives a mortgage, they almost always sell the "paper". The customer may always make their payment to that lender for the life of the loan, but that doesn't mean the paper itself wasn't sold to one of the GSEs to be included in mortgage-backed securities. In other words, although the mortgage has been sold, the lender will always SERVICE the loan. This means that there will never be a change to the customer's way of paying their mortgage payment each month. This is the primary means of income for most lenders, contrary to the belief that most lenders make their money from the interest rates they charge. Fannie & Freddie, as part of their contract with lenders, have the authority to require lenders to buy back any mortgage sold to them that has been proven to be inaccurate, incorrect, fraudulent, etc. For this reason, Fannie & Freddie have been going through everything they have & making lenders, past & present, buy back mortgages where, for all intents & purposes, everything wasn't underwritten perfectly. No missing dates, no name discrepancies between the loan application and the deed of trust, no addresses shown on the credit report that weren't on the loan application, etc. These are only two or three of the HUNDREDS of items these two GSEs are searching for in an effort to require lenders to buy their loans back.
The true "wealth" of a bank is dictated by how swiftly their cash is moving within the organization. They don't have the capital to place every loan they do in portfolio & tie that particular money up for 30 years. A bank can typically loan (unless its changed) 8 x the amount of assets they are currently holding. This is determined by the federal government. So, as you can see they need to keep their money "free" in order to continue lending.
For all these reasons, underwriters have been asking for items from customers that are sometimes viewed as ridiculous & unbelievable. Freddie & Fannie have forced lenders to throw common sense to the wayside because if it isn't documented, it doesn't work. Underwriters are reprimanded or their underwriting authority is REVOKED if they receive too many of these problems with loans they have underwritten. Underwriting is how they put groceries in THEIR pantry, just like we do what we do. No underwriter wants the bank they work for to have to buy back a loan because they forgot something, overlooked something, or just decided to use "common sense" to underwrite the loan.
This is a new time, ladies & gentlemen, and I wanted (if nobody else had yet) to shed some light on why things had changed so drastically, so quickly. The loan officers don't even KNOW how to respond to this, but we're doing the best we can.
Here is an article that was published on August 19th, 2010 on the website www.housingwire.com . It will also help us understand what's going on.
Fitch: Big Four Banks Face $180bn in Buybacks from Fannie and Freddie
Thursday, August 19th, 2010
Government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae may exercise the right to force the big four banks, JP Morgan (JPM: 37.08 +0.03%), Citigroup (C: 3.7282 -1.63%), Bank of America (BAC: 12.834 -1.43%), and Wells Fargo (WF: 34.95 -2.94%), to repurchase up to $180bn delinquent mortgages, according to a report released by Fitch Ratings Wednesday.
As of June 30, the GSEs hold $354.5bn troubled mortgages, with 50% serviced by the big four banks. Fitch estimates the big four banks already received repurchase requests up to $19.1bn in the Q110 and Q210 — $10.7bn of which related to the GSEs.
Fannie and Freddie are "actively exercising their right to put back to the original lenders a considerable amount of the troubled mortgages in their portfolios," write analysts Tom Abruzzo and Christopher Wolfe. The agencies have a right to require lenders to buyback delinquent mortgages, if it is determined the mortgage loan did not meet GSE investor underwriting or eligibility standards.
Fitch said it is undertaking a review of Fannie and Freddie to assess whether the increased reserves are just a part of the flood of troubled mortgages or whether they are expanding their interpretations of what constitutes an eligible mortgage under existing representation and warranty provisions.
"Fitch is concerned that a more aggressive request for loan repurchases could potentially expose banks with large mortgage origination operations to future losses that have not been previously incorporated into Fitch's existing exposures, and effectively into current ratings," the report said.
Under a mild loss scenario, where the banks buyback 25% of delinquent loans and recover 60% of the money, Fitch expects cumulative losses around $17bn.
Under a moderate loss scenario, in which the banks buyback 35% of delinquent loans and recover 55% of the money, Fitch expects losses around $27bn.
Under a more adverse scenario, if banks repurchase 50% of troubled mortgages and recover only half of the original investment, Fitch expects losses of about $42bn.
These figures do not include the banks' ability to cure deficiencies in loans which could lessen loss. Fitch believes the moderate scenario is the most likely and said it will continue to monitor the on-going developments between banks and the GSEs related to mortgage loan repurchases.
As you may already know, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, which are Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), have been under close government scrutiny ever since the housing market began to take a dive. The govt. has been trying to determine if they need to take over control of the two GSEs because of their apparent lack of self-control, or whatever your personal opinion may be. As a result, the two giants have been searching for ways (in my opinion) to offset some of the losses they've incurred over the last year or so.
Very recently, lenders began feverishly stressing the importance of loan quality and making sure every "T" was crossed & every "I" was dotted. The reasons behind this were that Fannie & Freddie had now begun not only scrutinizing the loans they were buying currently, but were going BACK & auditing loans they'd previously bought. You see, when a lender gives a mortgage, they almost always sell the "paper". The customer may always make their payment to that lender for the life of the loan, but that doesn't mean the paper itself wasn't sold to one of the GSEs to be included in mortgage-backed securities. In other words, although the mortgage has been sold, the lender will always SERVICE the loan. This means that there will never be a change to the customer's way of paying their mortgage payment each month. This is the primary means of income for most lenders, contrary to the belief that most lenders make their money from the interest rates they charge. Fannie & Freddie, as part of their contract with lenders, have the authority to require lenders to buy back any mortgage sold to them that has been proven to be inaccurate, incorrect, fraudulent, etc. For this reason, Fannie & Freddie have been going through everything they have & making lenders, past & present, buy back mortgages where, for all intents & purposes, everything wasn't underwritten perfectly. No missing dates, no name discrepancies between the loan application and the deed of trust, no addresses shown on the credit report that weren't on the loan application, etc. These are only two or three of the HUNDREDS of items these two GSEs are searching for in an effort to require lenders to buy their loans back.
The true "wealth" of a bank is dictated by how swiftly their cash is moving within the organization. They don't have the capital to place every loan they do in portfolio & tie that particular money up for 30 years. A bank can typically loan (unless its changed) 8 x the amount of assets they are currently holding. This is determined by the federal government. So, as you can see they need to keep their money "free" in order to continue lending.
For all these reasons, underwriters have been asking for items from customers that are sometimes viewed as ridiculous & unbelievable. Freddie & Fannie have forced lenders to throw common sense to the wayside because if it isn't documented, it doesn't work. Underwriters are reprimanded or their underwriting authority is REVOKED if they receive too many of these problems with loans they have underwritten. Underwriting is how they put groceries in THEIR pantry, just like we do what we do. No underwriter wants the bank they work for to have to buy back a loan because they forgot something, overlooked something, or just decided to use "common sense" to underwrite the loan.
This is a new time, ladies & gentlemen, and I wanted (if nobody else had yet) to shed some light on why things had changed so drastically, so quickly. The loan officers don't even KNOW how to respond to this, but we're doing the best we can.
Here is an article that was published on August 19th, 2010 on the website www.housingwire.com . It will also help us understand what's going on.
Fitch: Big Four Banks Face $180bn in Buybacks from Fannie and Freddie
Thursday, August 19th, 2010
Government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae may exercise the right to force the big four banks, JP Morgan (JPM: 37.08 +0.03%), Citigroup (C: 3.7282 -1.63%), Bank of America (BAC: 12.834 -1.43%), and Wells Fargo (WF: 34.95 -2.94%), to repurchase up to $180bn delinquent mortgages, according to a report released by Fitch Ratings Wednesday.
As of June 30, the GSEs hold $354.5bn troubled mortgages, with 50% serviced by the big four banks. Fitch estimates the big four banks already received repurchase requests up to $19.1bn in the Q110 and Q210 — $10.7bn of which related to the GSEs.
Fannie and Freddie are "actively exercising their right to put back to the original lenders a considerable amount of the troubled mortgages in their portfolios," write analysts Tom Abruzzo and Christopher Wolfe. The agencies have a right to require lenders to buyback delinquent mortgages, if it is determined the mortgage loan did not meet GSE investor underwriting or eligibility standards.
Fitch said it is undertaking a review of Fannie and Freddie to assess whether the increased reserves are just a part of the flood of troubled mortgages or whether they are expanding their interpretations of what constitutes an eligible mortgage under existing representation and warranty provisions.
"Fitch is concerned that a more aggressive request for loan repurchases could potentially expose banks with large mortgage origination operations to future losses that have not been previously incorporated into Fitch's existing exposures, and effectively into current ratings," the report said.
Under a mild loss scenario, where the banks buyback 25% of delinquent loans and recover 60% of the money, Fitch expects cumulative losses around $17bn.
Under a moderate loss scenario, in which the banks buyback 35% of delinquent loans and recover 55% of the money, Fitch expects losses around $27bn.
Under a more adverse scenario, if banks repurchase 50% of troubled mortgages and recover only half of the original investment, Fitch expects losses of about $42bn.
These figures do not include the banks' ability to cure deficiencies in loans which could lessen loss. Fitch believes the moderate scenario is the most likely and said it will continue to monitor the on-going developments between banks and the GSEs related to mortgage loan repurchases.
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