Don't get to excited just yet. But at least it is good news based on sales and pendings this month compared to last month.
Total closed sales June 1-24=84 prices ranged of sold homes=$40,000-$699,000.
Pending sales in June to date=285
Total closed sales May 1-24=62 prices ranged from $50,000-$1,275,000
Pending sales=263
My interpertation of this data and other data is that we are at or the bottom of the housing recession. Lets hope I am right.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Interesting Article
The following was from a recent article printed out of the NAR magazine.
Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66 million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected an improvement. “Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates,” he said. “First-time buyers also are being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 4.86 percent in May from a record low 4.81 percent in April; the rate was 6.04 percent in May 2008. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed at 5.38 percent; data collection began in 1971.
Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5 percent to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in April.
Yun said the appraisal problem is serious. “Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales,” he said. “In the past month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected.”
An NAR practitioner survey in May showed first-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of transactions, and that the number of buyers looking at homes is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago. “This is the time of year when we see large increases in the number of repeat buyers, who are benefitting from sales to entry-level buyers,” Yun said. “Investors appear less active, but are more prevalent in areas with large price corrections.”
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said appraisals and the tax credit are key issues. “To maximize the potential for a housing recovery and subsequent economic recovery, we need realistic appraisals that are based on proper comparisons and done by a local specialist,” he said. “In addition, the first-time buyer tax credit should be expanded to all buyers of primary homes regardless of income. Extending the credit into 2010 would allow more time for the market to catch up with underlying demand, in part because many families with children, who normally time their purchase based on school year considerations, do not have enough time to move before the start of school in late August.
“Freeing a pent-up demand in housing will absorb inventory at a faster pace, strengthen communities and stabilize home prices earlier,” McMillan said.
The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $173,000 in May, down 16.8 percent from a year earlier. Distressed properties, which declined to 33 percent of all sales in May from 45 percent in April, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.
“The decline in the distressed sales share likely results from an increase of repeat buyers in May,” Yun said. “First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed sales.”
Single-family home sales rose 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in May from a pace of 4.17 million in April, but are 3.0 percent below the 4.38 million-unit level in May 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $172,900 in May, down 16.1 percent from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000 units in May from 490,000 in April, but are 8.9 percent below the 571,000-unit level in May 2008. The median existing condo price4 was $173,800 in May, down 21.9 percent from a year earlier.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 3.9 percent to an annual level of 800,000 in May, but are 10.1 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $243,600, which is 12.5 percent below May 2008.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.0 percent in May to a pace of 1.09 million but are 4.4 percent below May 2008. The median price in the Midwest was $145,800, which is 10.4 percent lower than a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9 percent from May 2008.
Existing-home sales in the West slipped 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.14 million in May, but are 11.8 percent higher than May 2008. The median price in the West was $197,700, down 30.6 percent from a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
NOTE: Any references to performance in states or metro areas are from unpublished raw data used to analyze regional trends; please contact your local association of Realtors® for more information.
1The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
2Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982.
3The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.
4Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.
Existing-home sales for June will be released July 23. The next Pending Home Sales Index & Forecast is scheduled for July 1; release times are 10 a.m. EDT.
Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data in this release, other tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.
NAR at a Glance
Economic & Housing Indicators
NAR Fact Sheet
NAR Officer Bios
NAR Annual Report
REALTOR® Logo & Usage
REALTORS® in the Community
NAR Meetings & Expo
Register for News!
Sign up for the NAR listserv.
Register Now
-->
Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®. May’s increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66 million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected an improvement. “Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates,” he said. “First-time buyers also are being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory. However, the increase in sales is less than expected because poor appraisals are stalling transactions. Pending home sales indicated much stronger activity, but some contracts are falling through from faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 4.86 percent in May from a record low 4.81 percent in April; the rate was 6.04 percent in May 2008. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed at 5.38 percent; data collection began in 1971.
Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5 percent to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply2 at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in April.
Yun said the appraisal problem is serious. “Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales,” he said. “In the past month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts falling through at the last moment. There is danger of a delayed housing market recovery and a further rise in foreclosures if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected.”
An NAR practitioner survey in May showed first-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of transactions, and that the number of buyers looking at homes is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago. “This is the time of year when we see large increases in the number of repeat buyers, who are benefitting from sales to entry-level buyers,” Yun said. “Investors appear less active, but are more prevalent in areas with large price corrections.”
NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said appraisals and the tax credit are key issues. “To maximize the potential for a housing recovery and subsequent economic recovery, we need realistic appraisals that are based on proper comparisons and done by a local specialist,” he said. “In addition, the first-time buyer tax credit should be expanded to all buyers of primary homes regardless of income. Extending the credit into 2010 would allow more time for the market to catch up with underlying demand, in part because many families with children, who normally time their purchase based on school year considerations, do not have enough time to move before the start of school in late August.
“Freeing a pent-up demand in housing will absorb inventory at a faster pace, strengthen communities and stabilize home prices earlier,” McMillan said.
The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $173,000 in May, down 16.8 percent from a year earlier. Distressed properties, which declined to 33 percent of all sales in May from 45 percent in April, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.
“The decline in the distressed sales share likely results from an increase of repeat buyers in May,” Yun said. “First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed sales.”
Single-family home sales rose 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.25 million in May from a pace of 4.17 million in April, but are 3.0 percent below the 4.38 million-unit level in May 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $172,900 in May, down 16.1 percent from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 6.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 520,000 units in May from 490,000 in April, but are 8.9 percent below the 571,000-unit level in May 2008. The median existing condo price4 was $173,800 in May, down 21.9 percent from a year earlier.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 3.9 percent to an annual level of 800,000 in May, but are 10.1 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $243,600, which is 12.5 percent below May 2008.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.0 percent in May to a pace of 1.09 million but are 4.4 percent below May 2008. The median price in the Midwest was $145,800, which is 10.4 percent lower than a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales were unchanged at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9 percent from May 2008.
Existing-home sales in the West slipped 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.14 million in May, but are 11.8 percent higher than May 2008. The median price in the West was $197,700, down 30.6 percent from a year ago.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
NOTE: Any references to performance in states or metro areas are from unpublished raw data used to analyze regional trends; please contact your local association of Realtors® for more information.
1The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.
2Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982.
3The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.
4Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.
Existing-home sales for June will be released July 23. The next Pending Home Sales Index & Forecast is scheduled for July 1; release times are 10 a.m. EDT.
Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data in this release, other tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.
NAR at a Glance
Economic & Housing Indicators
NAR Fact Sheet
NAR Officer Bios
NAR Annual Report
REALTOR® Logo & Usage
REALTORS® in the Community
NAR Meetings & Expo
Register for News!
Sign up for the NAR listserv.
Register Now
-->
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
May and June home sales in New Bern
June 1 through June 16 home sales in the New Bern area=43
May 1 through May 16 home sales =42
June 1 through June 16 new home sales=12
May 1 through May 17 new home sales =17
Not much to draw on from the above analysis. New home sales are down from May but that may have been the military who often buy in May. All home sales are about the same this month as last. There are 1560 homes for sale currently which is way to many for the current absorption rate. Don't try to sale your home if you do not need to. Hang on and lets see what happens this summer.
May 1 through May 16 home sales =42
June 1 through June 16 new home sales=12
May 1 through May 17 new home sales =17
Not much to draw on from the above analysis. New home sales are down from May but that may have been the military who often buy in May. All home sales are about the same this month as last. There are 1560 homes for sale currently which is way to many for the current absorption rate. Don't try to sale your home if you do not need to. Hang on and lets see what happens this summer.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
New Home sales in New Bern
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It is a tough world out there for homebuilders throughout the country. Craven and Pamlico Counties are no exception. Just look at the statistics for sale of new homes over the last 4 years.
1. 2006 Jan.1-May 28 233 new home sales.
2. 2007 Jan.1-May28 213 new home sales
3.2008 Jan.1-May 28 118 new home sales
4. 2009 Jan.1-May 28 92 new home sales. As you can see new home sales are down 60% from 2006. On the plus side the inventory of new homes is down from last year but with current absorbption rates there is well over a year inventory. While that is not good for homebuilders it is good news for homebuyers. With plenty of homes to choose from and the lowest rates we have seen in over 60 years if you need a home now is the time to pull the trigger.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Great and Free-That's hard to beat
Free Concerts at the Tryon Palace
June 8th 7:PM
The 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing Band will play on the lawn behind the Palace
June 22nd 7:30 PM
The NC Symphony will play in the lawn behind the Palace
Bring your chair, blankets, drinks, and unbrella if weather is suspect. Come early as it gets very crowded.
See you there
Steve Tyson
www.newbern-nc.info
June 8th 7:PM
The 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing Band will play on the lawn behind the Palace
June 22nd 7:30 PM
The NC Symphony will play in the lawn behind the Palace
Bring your chair, blankets, drinks, and unbrella if weather is suspect. Come early as it gets very crowded.
See you there
Steve Tyson
www.newbern-nc.info
Saturday, May 16, 2009
New Bern Real Estate News
Hello Folks,
Real Estate Inventory is rising quickly and is up around 15% since the beginning of the year. The reason is many folks are listing their homes at prices that buyers are not finding attractive.
When we get a call from someone looking to list their property I tell them that I am going to be straight up with them about what their house is likely to sell for in today's market. We will not take overpriced listings because they are not helpful to us or our customers. Forget last years prices and certainly don't think about the value of your home in 2006. We have to deal with the reality of the moment. The strategy of well we can always come down on price is not working. There is plenty of inventory out there priced right that buyers can choose from.
If you are not happy with the current market value of your home don't try to sell it. Perhaps renting your home is an option. The Tyson Group has a property management division so we can help you with that if you so choose.
If you looked at a graph of home prices nationwide for the last 70 years there would be a gentle rise of around 2-3% per year depending on where you were. In 2004-2006 home prices rose 89% which was unsustainable and required the real estate market to correct itself. That is what is happenning now. A home is a great investment. You get to live in it and in the long term home prices will appreciate around 2-3 % per year. In the short term, as with any investment, we don't know what will happen.
Real Estate Inventory is rising quickly and is up around 15% since the beginning of the year. The reason is many folks are listing their homes at prices that buyers are not finding attractive.
When we get a call from someone looking to list their property I tell them that I am going to be straight up with them about what their house is likely to sell for in today's market. We will not take overpriced listings because they are not helpful to us or our customers. Forget last years prices and certainly don't think about the value of your home in 2006. We have to deal with the reality of the moment. The strategy of well we can always come down on price is not working. There is plenty of inventory out there priced right that buyers can choose from.
If you are not happy with the current market value of your home don't try to sell it. Perhaps renting your home is an option. The Tyson Group has a property management division so we can help you with that if you so choose.
If you looked at a graph of home prices nationwide for the last 70 years there would be a gentle rise of around 2-3% per year depending on where you were. In 2004-2006 home prices rose 89% which was unsustainable and required the real estate market to correct itself. That is what is happenning now. A home is a great investment. You get to live in it and in the long term home prices will appreciate around 2-3 % per year. In the short term, as with any investment, we don't know what will happen.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
Art sale
Now that Ballantyne Framing & Art has moved out of their old building, it’s time to do some cleaning up! In honor of this historic move, Ballantyne Framing & Art, will hold a huge Art Rummage Sale at their former location 223 Middle Street in New Bern. There are numerous bargains that will interest artists and art lovers. Dozens of old frames will be drastically marked down. Also in the sale: art prints, original art, fixtures, shelves, collectables, filing cabinets, desks, mat board scraps and much more. The sale starts at 9 a.m. and ends at 5 p.m. on Saturday, May 9, 2009. One day only.
Things to do in New Bern
The RetroRockets present: “Professor Doo-Wop’s History of Rock & Roll” at Broad Street Music May 9! The RetroRockets, New Bern’s premiere oldies band, will present “Professor Doo-Wop’s History of Rock & Roll”, on Saturday, May 9. Tracing the history of Rock & Roll through its roots in Blues, Jazz, Pop, and Traditional Music, the RetroRockets will perform a fascinating mix of vintage Rock’n’Roll, Surf Music, British Invasion, and more, spanning the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s, served up with humor, hot licks, and a great sense of fun! The RetroRockets feature guitars, bass, drums, fiddle, and a surprise instrument or two. They perform songs from Buddy Holly, Chuck Berry, the Beatles, Beach Boys, Stray Cats, Lynard Skynnard, and many others. Broad Street Music is just located at 411 Broad Street; tickets are $5, available at the door. The music will start at 7:00, and go until 10:00. Call Simon at 252-636-1256 for more information. Preview the band by searching “Retrorocketsnewbern” on YouTube. Visit the band's website, "retrorocketsnbnc" on Myspace.com. “…Rocking arrangements that get audiences singing, clapping and toe-tapping along…” –Arts Alive “Coming down from their celestial eclectic rock orbit to perform Rock & Roll, Rockabilly, Surf Music, Beatles covers, TV themes and much more…” --This Week “The Retro Rockets have a thing for time travel…. the quirky group ‘boldly goes where few bands go anymore’… the band shares stories and offers nuggets of rock trivia. The trio considers playing tunes that time left behind as its calling, preserving the rich musical heritage of the '50s and '60s.” --New Bern Sun-Journal “This is great stuff…cool website too…” –Jeff Diamond, Oldies 107.9 “The RetroRockets are sure to play some of your favorites!” --Historic New Bern Herald
Home sales in New Bern
316 homes were sold from January 1, 2009- April 30. That is off from 477 January 1, 2008- April 30, 2008. That is about a 34 % decrease in home sales. If you look at just new home sales during this same period they are down by 25%.
What does all this mean? Well for buyers it is good news. Great selection of homes to choose from and the lowest interest rates in 60 years. For sellers it is a different story. It is a falling market. If you need to sell forget about the price your neighbor sold their house for in 2006. Not goning to happen. Find a good broker who will do an honest and accurate market analysis and listen to what they say. Do not let a broker buy your listing. There are plenty of overpriced homes out there and you don't want yours to be one of them.
If your market analysis comes up for less than you want to sell it for than consider renting your house or staying put untilthe market recovers. Not much else you can do. Please feel free to contact me if you need more information or advice.
Steve Tyson
www.newbern-nc.info
stevetyson@ncmove.com
What does all this mean? Well for buyers it is good news. Great selection of homes to choose from and the lowest interest rates in 60 years. For sellers it is a different story. It is a falling market. If you need to sell forget about the price your neighbor sold their house for in 2006. Not goning to happen. Find a good broker who will do an honest and accurate market analysis and listen to what they say. Do not let a broker buy your listing. There are plenty of overpriced homes out there and you don't want yours to be one of them.
If your market analysis comes up for less than you want to sell it for than consider renting your house or staying put untilthe market recovers. Not much else you can do. Please feel free to contact me if you need more information or advice.
Steve Tyson
www.newbern-nc.info
stevetyson@ncmove.com
Sunday, May 03, 2009
Swine Flu
Craven County H1N1 (Swine Flu) Update 5/1/09
Note that since this report there have been 5 probable cases at Arthur Edwards School in Havelock and the school is closed for 7 days or until further notice by the Craven county Health department. 5/4
We learned today that Craven County has its first suspect case of H1N1. The case is an adult male that returned from Mexico three days ago and began having flu-like symptoms. I have issued the isolation order and our staff is working with the suspect case and his family and any other close contacts. This is much like working an active TB case for our communicable disease staff so they are very adept at handling situations like this. We plan on notifying the media because at this point the word is out and the notification needs to come from the health department rather than some other source. The gentleman’s name will be kept confidential and I can assure you all of the necessary precautions are being taken to protect the public’s health.
The antivirals that we were supposed to receive from the state did not arrive. They will be delayed and we expect them the first of next week. There should be enough antivirals on hand at our local pharmacies to treat several cases without the use of the stockpile antivirals.
What can people do at this point?
There is a great website: http://www.ncpublichealth.com/ , just click on the swine flu information to the right of the screen. It has information for medical personnel and the general public. Initial numbers indicate the swine flu is no more lethal than the seasonal flu, however the data is questionable because it is very new and there are not enough confirmed cases to make a good determination on the virulence of the H1N1 strain.
We anticipate local providers and our staff will be bombarded with calls and anybody exhibiting flu like symptoms. As more cases surface we may need to implement some control measures such as cancelling public gatherings. We are not at that level yet but it is something we should be prepared to do if the situation calls for it. We are reviewing the CDC guidance in regard to this type of control measures.
Note that since this report there have been 5 probable cases at Arthur Edwards School in Havelock and the school is closed for 7 days or until further notice by the Craven county Health department. 5/4
We learned today that Craven County has its first suspect case of H1N1. The case is an adult male that returned from Mexico three days ago and began having flu-like symptoms. I have issued the isolation order and our staff is working with the suspect case and his family and any other close contacts. This is much like working an active TB case for our communicable disease staff so they are very adept at handling situations like this. We plan on notifying the media because at this point the word is out and the notification needs to come from the health department rather than some other source. The gentleman’s name will be kept confidential and I can assure you all of the necessary precautions are being taken to protect the public’s health.
The antivirals that we were supposed to receive from the state did not arrive. They will be delayed and we expect them the first of next week. There should be enough antivirals on hand at our local pharmacies to treat several cases without the use of the stockpile antivirals.
What can people do at this point?
There is a great website: http://www.ncpublichealth.com/ , just click on the swine flu information to the right of the screen. It has information for medical personnel and the general public. Initial numbers indicate the swine flu is no more lethal than the seasonal flu, however the data is questionable because it is very new and there are not enough confirmed cases to make a good determination on the virulence of the H1N1 strain.
We anticipate local providers and our staff will be bombarded with calls and anybody exhibiting flu like symptoms. As more cases surface we may need to implement some control measures such as cancelling public gatherings. We are not at that level yet but it is something we should be prepared to do if the situation calls for it. We are reviewing the CDC guidance in regard to this type of control measures.
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